Compare

Green Bay Packers vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.536 equity (77.7% win probability) against Packers at 0.368 — a real gap of 0.168.

GB team page →JAX team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MINOpponentvs CLE

47.0%Win prob77.7%

0.368Equity score0.536

+1.5Spread11/11 books−8.5

46.5Game total40.0

▲ 0.002Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · GB 5 — JAX 2. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1527.4ELO rating1528.9

#15ELO rank#14

9-7-1Record13-4

NFC NorthDivisionAFC South

#2Division rank#1

L 4 · L 13 · L 17 · L 6 · L 8Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +34 · W +6 · W +14 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

15.0 · #12vs QB15.9 · #15

21.9 · #17vs RB18.7 · #2

31.3 · #18vs WR31.2 · #17

12.1 · #10vs TE14.8 · #22

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.06 (2025)Sacks / game1.83 (2025)

10Pressures / game9.28

17-15-1Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows5-5

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

44.1% · #15Pre-snap motion47.1% · #12

11.7% · #12Play action10.2% · #22

7.9% · #4RPO3.6% · #21

3.3% · #18Screen pass3.8% · #15

7.2% · #14No huddle6.1% · #16

52.2% · #21Shotgun50.5% · #24

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

21.2% · #31Man coverage25.4% · #26

21.9% · #28Blitz (5+ rushers)27.3% · #18

30.7% · #16Pressure27.9% · #26

GB scheme profile →JAX scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Green Bay Packers

Aaron BanksGLimited Participation in Practice
Anthony BeltonOffensive TackleOut
Barryn SorrellLBLimited Participation in Practice
Bo MeltonCornerbackQuestionable
Brandon McManusPlace KickerOut
Brenton Cox Jr.Defensive EndQuestionable
Christian WatsonWide ReceiverOut
Collin OliverDefensive EndOut
Devonte WyattDTLimited Participation in Practice
Donovan JenningsGuardOut
Dontayvion WicksWide ReceiverQuestionable
Edgerrin CooperLinebackerOut

Jacksonville Jaguars

Andrew WingardSafetyOut
Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleOut
Arik ArmsteadDefensive EndQuestionable
Austin JohnsonDefensive TackleOut
Bhayshul TutenRunning BackOut
Brian Thomas Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
Cole Van LanenTLimited Participation in Practice
Danny StriggowDefensive EndQuestionable
DeeJay DallasRunning BackOut
Dyami BrownWide ReceiverOut
Emmanuel OgbahDefensive EndOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)