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Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Lions is the better survivor pick this week

Lions score 0.502 equity (73.4% win probability) against Commanders at 0.280 — a real gap of 0.222.

DET team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs NOOpponent@ PHI

73.4%Win prob31.7%

0.502Equity score0.280

−7.0Spread11/11 books+5.5

50.0Game total44.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 15 meetings · DET 9 — WAS 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1564.1ELO rating1464.1

#7ELO rank#24

9-8Record5-12

NFC NorthDivisionNFC East

#3Division rank#3

W +3 · L 13 · L 5 · L 7 · W +14Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.2 · #24vs QB19.5 · #30

19.4 · #7vs RB25.6 · #27

35.6 · #29vs WR34.9 · #25

13.7 · #17vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)

9.25Pressures / game7.47

16-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.3% · #9Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

12.0% · #10Play action11.9% · #11

3.1% · #24RPO6.3% · #12

4.9% · #6Screen pass3.7% · #16

5.0% · #20No huddle50.2% · #1

42.3% · #30Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

42.6% · #4Man coverage32.0% · #15

28.9% · #10Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

31.8% · #10Pressure31.3% · #14

DET scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Detroit Lions

Ahmed HassaneinDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex AnzaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Alim McNeillDefensive TackleOut
Amon-Ra St. BrownWide ReceiverOut
Chris SmithDefensive TackleOut
Christian IzienSLimited Participation in Practice
Craig ReynoldsRunning BackOut
D.J. ReedCornerbackQuestionable
Dan JacksonSafetyInjured Reserve
Daniel ThomasSafetyQuestionable
Derrick MooreDELimited Participation in Practice
Dicaprio BootleCornerbackInjured Reserve

Washington Commanders

Ale KahoLinebackerOut
Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Colson YankoffTight EndOut
Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
Daron PayneDTLimited Participation in Practice
Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Lions)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)