NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Lions is the better survivor pick this week

Lions score 0.520 equity (73.5% win probability) against Commanders at 0.263 — a real gap of 0.257.

DET team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MIAOpponentvs LA
73.5%Win prob33.2%
0.520Equity score0.263
−7.0Spread11/11 books+4.5
50.5Game total48.5
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 15 meetings · DET 9 — WAS 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1560.8ELO rating1466.6
#6ELO rank#22
5-2Record2-4-1
NFC NorthDivisionNFC East
#3Division rank#3
W +4 · W +3 · W +24 · L 6 · W +7Last 5newest firstW +17 · L 6 · T 0 · L 17 · W +2

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

24.8 · #28vs QB20.0 · #25
18.2 · #4vs RB19.8 · #9
37.6 · #26vs WR33.6 · #18
27.9 · #28vs TE20.7 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.5 (2026)Sacks / game1.83 (2026)
12.67Pressures / game10
16-14Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows9-15

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.3% · #9Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18
12.0% · #10Play action11.9% · #11
3.1% · #24RPO6.3% · #12
4.9% · #6Screen pass3.7% · #16
5.0% · #20No huddle50.2% · #1
42.3% · #30Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

42.6% · #4Man coverage32.0% · #15
28.9% · #10Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16
31.8% · #10Pressure31.3% · #14
DET scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Detroit Lions

  • Amen OgbongbemigaLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Amon-Ra St. BrownWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Blake MillerOffensive TackleOut
  • Brian BranchSLimited Participation in Practice
  • Cade MaysCDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Christian MahoganyGuardOut
  • D.J. ReedCBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • DJ WonnumDEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Isiah PachecoRunning BackInjured Reserve
  • Jack CampbellLBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Jacob SaylorsRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Kerby JosephSLimited Participation in Practice

Washington Commanders

  • Charles OmenihuDefensive EndOut
  • Colson YankoffTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Isaac YiadomCornerbackOut
  • Javon KinlawDefensive TackleQuestionable
  • Javontae Jean-BaptisteLinebackerInjured Reserve
  • Jayden DanielsQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Jer'Zhan NewtonDTFull Participation in Practice
  • John BatesTELimited Participation in Practice
  • Sam CosmiGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Shy TuttleDTLimited Participation in Practice
  • Stefon DiggsWRDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Terry McLaurinWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

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