NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Lions is the better survivor pick this week

Lions score 0.512 equity (73.4% win probability) against Buccaneers at 0.258 — a real gap of 0.254.

DET team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MIAOpponent@ CHI
73.4%Win prob29.5%
0.512Equity score0.258
−7.0Spread11/11 books+6.0
50.5Game total47.5
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 11TB @ DETnot played yet

All-time series: 21 meetings · DET 10 — TB 11. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1560.8ELO rating1474.2
#6ELO rank#19
5-2Record3-5
NFC NorthDivisionNFC South
#3Division rank#2
W +4 · W +3 · W +24 · L 6 · W +7Last 5newest firstW +16 · W +30 · L 7 · W +8 · L 3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

24.8 · #28vs QB11.6 · #3
18.2 · #4vs RB16.9 · #1
37.6 · #26vs WR28.5 · #8
27.9 · #28vs TE14.8 · #19

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.5 (2026)Sacks / game2.29 (2026)
12.67Pressures / game7.43
16-14Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows11-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.3% · #9Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5
12.0% · #10Play action8.4% · #31
3.1% · #24RPO6.4% · #11
4.9% · #6Screen pass5.1% · #5
5.0% · #20No huddle5.5% · #19
42.3% · #30Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

42.6% · #4Man coverage30.3% · #18
28.9% · #10Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3
31.8% · #10Pressure34.1% · #3
DET scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Detroit Lions

  • Amen OgbongbemigaLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Amon-Ra St. BrownWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Blake MillerOffensive TackleOut
  • Brian BranchSLimited Participation in Practice
  • Cade MaysCDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Christian MahoganyGuardOut
  • D.J. ReedCBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • DJ WonnumDEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Isiah PachecoRunning BackInjured Reserve
  • Jack CampbellLBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Jacob SaylorsRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Kerby JosephSLimited Participation in Practice

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyOut
  • Baker MayfieldQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
  • Cade OttonTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Cody MauchGFull Participation in Practice
  • Elijah RobertsDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Emeka EgbukaWRDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Jalen McMillanWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Kenny GainwellRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • SirVocea DennisLinebackerOut
  • Tykee SmithSLimited Participation in Practice
  • Yaya DiabyLBDid Not Participate In Practice

Relevant to this matchup

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