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Detroit Lions vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Lions is the better survivor pick this week

Lions score 0.500 equity (73.2% win probability) against Buccaneers at 0.310 — a real gap of 0.190.

DET team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs NOOpponent@ CIN

73.2%Win prob35.6%

0.500Equity score0.310

−7.0Spread11/11 books+3.5

50.0Game total50.5

▲ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.004

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 11TB @ DETnot played yet

All-time series: 21 meetings · DET 10 — TB 11. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1564.1ELO rating1487.8

#7ELO rank#18

9-8Record8-9

NFC NorthDivisionNFC South

#3Division rank#2

W +3 · L 13 · L 5 · L 7 · W +14Last 5newest firstW +2 · L 3 · L 3 · L 1 · L 4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.2 · #24vs QB19.5 · #29

19.4 · #7vs RB22.2 · #18

35.6 · #29vs WR31.5 · #19

13.7 · #17vs TE15.8 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3 (2025)Sacks / game2.18 (2025)

9.25Pressures / game7.82

16-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.3% · #9Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5

12.0% · #10Play action8.4% · #31

3.1% · #24RPO6.4% · #11

4.9% · #6Screen pass5.1% · #5

5.0% · #20No huddle5.5% · #19

42.3% · #30Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

42.6% · #4Man coverage30.3% · #18

28.9% · #10Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3

31.8% · #10Pressure34.1% · #3

DET scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Detroit Lions

Ahmed HassaneinDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex AnzaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Alim McNeillDefensive TackleOut
Amon-Ra St. BrownWide ReceiverOut
Chris SmithDefensive TackleOut
Christian IzienSLimited Participation in Practice
Craig ReynoldsRunning BackOut
D.J. ReedCornerbackQuestionable
Dan JacksonSafetyInjured Reserve
Daniel ThomasSafetyQuestionable
Derrick MooreDELimited Participation in Practice
Dicaprio BootleCornerbackInjured Reserve

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anthony NelsonLinebackerOut
Anthony Walker Jr.LinebackerQuestionable
Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyQuestionable
Ben BredesonGuardQuestionable
Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
Billy SchrauthGFull Participation in Practice
Bucky IrvingRunning BackOut
Calijah KanceyDefensive TackleQuestionable
Chris GodwinWide ReceiverOut
Christian IzienSafetyOut
Christian RozeboomLBLimited Participation in Practice
Connor BazelakQuarterbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Lions)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)