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Detroit Lions vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Lions is the better survivor pick this week

Lions score 0.500 equity (73.2% win probability) against Steelers at 0.459 — a real gap of 0.041.

DET team page →PIT team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs NOOpponentvs ATL

73.2%Win prob67.2%

0.500Equity score0.459

−7.0Spread11/11 books−5.0

50.0Game total41.5

▲ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · DET 0 — PIT 6 · 1 ties. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1564.1ELO rating1529.4

#7ELO rank#13

9-8Record10-7

NFC NorthDivisionAFC North

#3Division rank#1

W +3 · L 13 · L 5 · L 7 · W +14Last 5newest firstL 24 · W +2 · L 7 · W +5 · W +13

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.2 · #24vs QB18.8 · #27

19.4 · #7vs RB19.5 · #8

35.6 · #29vs WR35.2 · #26

13.7 · #17vs TE16.6 · #29

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3 (2025)Sacks / game2.83 (2025)

9.25Pressures / game9

16-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows15-18

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.3% · #9Pre-snap motion43.4% · #16

12.0% · #10Play action9.2% · #27

3.1% · #24RPO7.0% · #10

4.9% · #6Screen pass6.6% · #1

5.0% · #20No huddle9.7% · #7

42.3% · #30Shotgun54.2% · #17

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

42.6% · #4Man coverage36.9% · #10

28.9% · #10Blitz (5+ rushers)31.4% · #8

31.8% · #10Pressure29.5% · #20

DET scheme profile →PIT scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Detroit Lions

Ahmed HassaneinDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex AnzaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Alim McNeillDefensive TackleOut
Amon-Ra St. BrownWide ReceiverOut
Chris SmithDefensive TackleOut
Christian IzienSLimited Participation in Practice
Craig ReynoldsRunning BackOut
D.J. ReedCornerbackQuestionable
Dan JacksonSafetyInjured Reserve
Daniel ThomasSafetyQuestionable
Derrick MooreDELimited Participation in Practice
Dicaprio BootleCornerbackInjured Reserve

Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron RodgersQuarterbackQuestionable
Alex HighsmithLinebackerOut
Andrus PeatGuardQuestionable
Brandin EcholsCornerbackQuestionable
Brandon JohnsonWide ReceiverQuestionable
Broderick JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Calvin Austin IIIWide ReceiverQuestionable
Cameron McCutcheonCornerbackInjured Reserve
Christian KuntzLong SnapperQuestionable
Chuck ClarkSafetyOut
Darius SlayCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Lions)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)