NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Detroit Lions vs New York Jets

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Lions is the better survivor pick this week

Lions score 0.520 equity (73.5% win probability) against Jets at 0.189 — a real gap of 0.331.

DET team page →NYJ team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MIAOpponent@ KC
73.5%Win prob19.7%
0.520Equity score0.189
−7.0Spread11/11 books+10.0
50.5Game total47.5
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 3NYJ @ DET24-31 · DET

All-time series: 8 meetings · DET 4 — NYJ 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1560.8ELO rating1393.2
#6ELO rank#31
5-2Record2-6
NFC NorthDivisionAFC East
#3Division rank#3
W +4 · W +3 · W +24 · L 6 · W +7Last 5newest firstL 5 · L 3 · L 7 · W +5 · L 11

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

24.8 · #28vs QB18.0 · #16
18.2 · #4vs RB21.8 · #17
37.6 · #26vs WR28.8 · #9
27.9 · #28vs TE13.9 · #16

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.5 (2026)Sacks / game2.71 (2026)
12.67Pressures / game8.71
16-14Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows3-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.3% · #9Pre-snap motion49.8% · #7
12.0% · #10Play action8.6% · #29
3.1% · #24RPO7.1% · #8
4.9% · #6Screen pass3.4% · #17
5.0% · #20No huddle8.1% · #10
42.3% · #30Shotgun59.8% · #8

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

42.6% · #4Man coverage40.5% · #6
28.9% · #10Blitz (5+ rushers)28.3% · #13
31.8% · #10Pressure24.8% · #30
DET scheme profile →NYJ scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Detroit Lions

  • Amen OgbongbemigaLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Amon-Ra St. BrownWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Blake MillerOffensive TackleOut
  • Brian BranchSLimited Participation in Practice
  • Cade MaysCDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Christian MahoganyGuardOut
  • D.J. ReedCBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • DJ WonnumDEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Isiah PachecoRunning BackInjured Reserve
  • Jack CampbellLBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Jacob SaylorsRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Kerby JosephSLimited Participation in Practice

New York Jets

  • Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
  • Allen LazardWide ReceiverOut
  • Andre CiscoSafetyQuestionable
  • Arian SmithWide ReceiverOut
  • Azareye'h ThomasCornerbackQuestionable
  • Braelon AllenRunning BackOut
  • Breece HallRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Bump CooperCornerbackInjured Reserve
  • Byron CowartDefensive TackleQuestionable
  • Cam JonesLinebackerOut
  • Chris Smith IISafetyOut
  • David BaileyDELimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

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