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Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Lions is the better survivor pick this week

Lions score 0.500 equity (73.2% win probability) against Vikings at 0.382 — a real gap of 0.119.

DET team page →MIN team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs NOOpponentvs GB

73.2%Win prob53.0%

0.500Equity score0.382

−7.0Spread11/11 books−1.5

50.0Game total46.5

▲ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.002

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 8MIN @ DETnot played yet

Week 15DET @ MINnot played yet

All-time series: 54 meetings · DET 18 — MIN 36. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1564.1ELO rating1547.9

#7ELO rank#10

9-8Record9-8

NFC NorthDivisionNFC North

#3Division rank#4

W +3 · L 13 · L 5 · L 7 · W +14Last 5newest firstW +13 · W +13 · W +3 · W +8 · W +31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.2 · #24vs QB11.1 · #1

19.4 · #7vs RB19.6 · #9

35.6 · #29vs WR23.7 · #1

13.7 · #17vs TE10.7 · #5

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3 (2025)Sacks / game2.88 (2025)

9.25Pressures / game9.06

16-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows11-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.3% · #9Pre-snap motion41.3% · #23

12.0% · #10Play action12.5% · #8

3.1% · #24RPO3.7% · #20

4.9% · #6Screen pass4.2% · #10

5.0% · #20No huddle6.1% · #15

42.3% · #30Shotgun45.6% · #26

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

42.6% · #4Man coverage19.0% · #32

28.9% · #10Blitz (5+ rushers)46.2% · #1

31.8% · #10Pressure34.1% · #4

DET scheme profile →MIN scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Detroit Lions

Ahmed HassaneinDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex AnzaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Alim McNeillDefensive TackleOut
Amon-Ra St. BrownWide ReceiverOut
Chris SmithDefensive TackleOut
Christian IzienSLimited Participation in Practice
Craig ReynoldsRunning BackOut
D.J. ReedCornerbackQuestionable
Dan JacksonSafetyInjured Reserve
Daniel ThomasSafetyQuestionable
Derrick MooreDELimited Participation in Practice
Dicaprio BootleCornerbackInjured Reserve

Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Sr.Running BackQuestionable
Adam ThielenWide ReceiverOut
Andrew Van GinkelLinebackerOut
Austin KeysLinebackerOut
Ben SimsTight EndOut
Ben YurosekTight EndOut
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Brian O'NeillOffensive TackleOut
Caleb TiernanTLimited Participation in Practice
Chaz ChamblissLinebackerOut
Christian DarrisawOffensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackOut

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Lions)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)