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Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Lions is the better survivor pick this week

Lions score 0.500 equity (73.2% win probability) against Dolphins at 0.324 — a real gap of 0.177.

DET team page →MIA team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs NOOpponent@ LV

73.2%Win prob39.8%

0.500Equity score0.324

−7.0Spread11/11 books+3.0

50.0Game total40.5

▲ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.002

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 9DET @ MIAnot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · DET 3 — MIA 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1564.1ELO rating1475.1

#7ELO rank#21

9-8Record7-10

NFC NorthDivisionAFC East

#3Division rank#3

W +3 · L 13 · L 5 · L 7 · W +14Last 5newest firstL 28 · W +3 · L 24 · L 13 · W +24

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.2 · #24vs QB18.2 · #23

19.4 · #7vs RB25.5 · #26

35.6 · #29vs WR29.9 · #14

13.7 · #17vs TE16.2 · #28

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3 (2025)Sacks / game2.29 (2025)

9.25Pressures / game7.65

16-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows7-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.3% · #9Pre-snap motion55.9% · #1

12.0% · #10Play action12.9% · #6

3.1% · #24RPO4.4% · #16

4.9% · #6Screen pass5.2% · #4

5.0% · #20No huddle3.1% · #28

42.3% · #30Shotgun57.9% · #13

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

42.6% · #4Man coverage28.4% · #21

28.9% · #10Blitz (5+ rushers)33.1% · #5

31.8% · #10Pressure27.2% · #28

DET scheme profile →MIA scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Detroit Lions

Ahmed HassaneinDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex AnzaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Alim McNeillDefensive TackleOut
Amon-Ra St. BrownWide ReceiverOut
Chris SmithDefensive TackleOut
Christian IzienSLimited Participation in Practice
Craig ReynoldsRunning BackOut
D.J. ReedCornerbackQuestionable
Dan JacksonSafetyInjured Reserve
Daniel ThomasSafetyQuestionable
Derrick MooreDELimited Participation in Practice
Dicaprio BootleCornerbackInjured Reserve

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLinebackerOut
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Lions)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)