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Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Lions play Dolphins in Week 9

They face each other, so only one can be used this week. On real de-vigged market prices DET carries the higher survivor equity score.

DET team page →MIA team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MIAOpponentvs DET

73.4%Win prob26.6%

0.512Equity score0.238

−7.0Spread11/11 books+7.0

50.5Game total50.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Head-to-head this week

week 9 · Hard Rock Stadium

Matchup: DET @ MIA
Spread (home): +7.0 (11 books)
Total: 50.5 (11 books)
Kickoff: Sun, 08 Nov 2026 18:00

Opened MIA +6.5, now MIA +7.0 · moved 0.5 toward DET · Total 47.0 → 50.5 (+3.5)(251 snapshots)

Forecast: 82.0°F · wind 3.6 mph · 44% precip · Rain

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 9DET @ MIAnot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · DET 3 — MIA 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1560.8ELO rating1442.8

#6ELO rank#27

5-2Record1-6

NFC NorthDivisionAFC East

#3Division rank#4

W +4 · W +3 · W +24 · L 6 · W +7Last 5newest firstL 5 · W +3 · L 7 · L 5 · L 14

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

24.8 · #28vs QB20.0 · #24

18.2 · #4vs RB26.5 · #25

37.6 · #26vs WR25.4 · #3

27.9 · #28vs TE19.2 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.5 (2026)Sacks / game1 (2026)

12.67Pressures / game6.83

16-14Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows7-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.3% · #9Pre-snap motion55.9% · #1

12.0% · #10Play action12.9% · #6

3.1% · #24RPO4.4% · #16

4.9% · #6Screen pass5.2% · #4

5.0% · #20No huddle3.1% · #28

42.3% · #30Shotgun57.9% · #13

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

42.6% · #4Man coverage28.4% · #21

28.9% · #10Blitz (5+ rushers)33.1% · #5

31.8% · #10Pressure27.2% · #28

DET scheme profile →MIA scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Detroit Lions

Amen OgbongbemigaLBLimited Participation in Practice
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRLimited Participation in Practice
Blake MillerOffensive TackleOut
Brian BranchSLimited Participation in Practice
Cade MaysCDid Not Participate In Practice
Christian MahoganyGuardOut
D.J. ReedCBDid Not Participate In Practice
DJ WonnumDEDid Not Participate In Practice
Isiah PachecoRunning BackInjured Reserve
Jack CampbellLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Jacob SaylorsRBLimited Participation in Practice
Kerby JosephSLimited Participation in Practice

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLBLimited Participation in Practice
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)