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Detroit Lions vs Los Angeles Chargers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Chargers is the better survivor pick this week

Chargers score 0.551 equity (80.1% win probability) against Lions at 0.500 — a real gap of 0.051.

DET team page →LAC team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs NOOpponentvs ARI

73.2%Win prob80.1%

0.500Equity score0.551

−7.0Spread11/11 books−9.5

50.0Game total47.5

▲ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · DET 3 — LAC 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1564.1ELO rating1536.9

#7ELO rank#11

9-8Record11-6

NFC NorthDivisionAFC West

#3Division rank#2

W +3 · L 13 · L 5 · L 7 · W +14Last 5newest firstL 13 · L 16 · L 4 · W +17 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.2 · #24vs QB12.6 · #2

19.4 · #7vs RB18.7 · #3

35.6 · #29vs WR27.4 · #11

13.7 · #17vs TE10.5 · #4

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3 (2025)Sacks / game2.78 (2025)

9.25Pressures / game8

16-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows15-16

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.3% · #9Pre-snap motion42.2% · #19

12.0% · #10Play action11.5% · #14

3.1% · #24RPO2.0% · #27

4.9% · #6Screen pass2.8% · #25

5.0% · #20No huddle3.9% · #25

42.3% · #30Shotgun59.0% · #10

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

42.6% · #4Man coverage23.6% · #27

28.9% · #10Blitz (5+ rushers)22.1% · #27

31.8% · #10Pressure31.3% · #12

DET scheme profile →LAC scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Detroit Lions

Ahmed HassaneinDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex AnzaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Alim McNeillDefensive TackleOut
Amon-Ra St. BrownWide ReceiverOut
Chris SmithDefensive TackleOut
Christian IzienSLimited Participation in Practice
Craig ReynoldsRunning BackOut
D.J. ReedCornerbackQuestionable
Dan JacksonSafetyInjured Reserve
Daniel ThomasSafetyQuestionable
Derrick MooreDELimited Participation in Practice
Dicaprio BootleCornerbackInjured Reserve

Los Angeles Chargers

Benjamin St-JusteCornerbackOut
Bobby HartOffensive TackleOut
Bradley BozemanCenterOut
Brenen ThompsonWRLimited Participation in Practice
Bud DupreeLinebackerQuestionable
Cam HartCornerbackOut
Da'Shawn HandDefensive TackleQuestionable
Deane LeonardCBDid Not Participate In Practice
Del'Shawn PhillipsLinebackerOut
Dez FitzpatrickWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Donte JacksonCornerbackQuestionable
Elijah MoldenCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Lions)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(mentions Chargers)