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Detroit Lions vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.536 equity (77.7% win probability) against Lions at 0.500 — a real gap of 0.036.

DET team page →JAX team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs NOOpponentvs CLE

73.2%Win prob77.7%

0.500Equity score0.536

−7.0Spread11/11 books−8.5

50.0Game total40.0

▲ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · DET 5 — JAX 2. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1564.1ELO rating1528.9

#7ELO rank#14

9-8Record13-4

NFC NorthDivisionAFC South

#3Division rank#1

W +3 · L 13 · L 5 · L 7 · W +14Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +34 · W +6 · W +14 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.2 · #24vs QB15.9 · #15

19.4 · #7vs RB18.7 · #2

35.6 · #29vs WR31.2 · #17

13.7 · #17vs TE14.8 · #22

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3 (2025)Sacks / game1.83 (2025)

9.25Pressures / game9.28

16-12Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows5-5

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.3% · #9Pre-snap motion47.1% · #12

12.0% · #10Play action10.2% · #22

3.1% · #24RPO3.6% · #21

4.9% · #6Screen pass3.8% · #15

5.0% · #20No huddle6.1% · #16

42.3% · #30Shotgun50.5% · #24

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

42.6% · #4Man coverage25.4% · #26

28.9% · #10Blitz (5+ rushers)27.3% · #18

31.8% · #10Pressure27.9% · #26

DET scheme profile →JAX scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Detroit Lions

Ahmed HassaneinDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex AnzaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Alim McNeillDefensive TackleOut
Amon-Ra St. BrownWide ReceiverOut
Chris SmithDefensive TackleOut
Christian IzienSLimited Participation in Practice
Craig ReynoldsRunning BackOut
D.J. ReedCornerbackQuestionable
Dan JacksonSafetyInjured Reserve
Daniel ThomasSafetyQuestionable
Derrick MooreDELimited Participation in Practice
Dicaprio BootleCornerbackInjured Reserve

Jacksonville Jaguars

Andrew WingardSafetyOut
Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleOut
Arik ArmsteadDefensive EndQuestionable
Austin JohnsonDefensive TackleOut
Bhayshul TutenRunning BackOut
Brian Thomas Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
Cole Van LanenTLimited Participation in Practice
Danny StriggowDefensive EndQuestionable
DeeJay DallasRunning BackOut
Dyami BrownWide ReceiverOut
Emmanuel OgbahDefensive EndOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Lions)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)