Compare

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Lions is the better survivor pick this week

Lions score 0.519 equity (73.5% win probability) against Packers at 0.295 — a real gap of 0.224.

DET team page →GB team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ MIAOpponent@ NE

73.5%Win prob39.0%

0.519Equity score0.295

−7.0Spread11/11 books+3.0

50.5Game total45.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 7GB @ DET17-20 · DET

Week 18DET @ GBnot played yet

All-time series: 55 meetings · DET 19 — GB 36. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1560.8ELO rating1531.1

#6ELO rank#13

5-2Record5-3

NFC NorthDivisionNFC North

#3Division rank#4

W +4 · W +3 · W +24 · L 6 · W +7Last 5newest firstW +8 · L 3 · W +10 · W +24 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

24.8 · #28vs QB12.6 · #5

18.2 · #4vs RB25.5 · #23

37.6 · #26vs WR35.0 · #22

27.9 · #28vs TE9.0 · #2

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.5 (2026)Sacks / game2.75 (2026)

12.67Pressures / game9.38

16-14Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows19-16-1

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.3% · #9Pre-snap motion44.1% · #15

12.0% · #10Play action11.7% · #12

3.1% · #24RPO7.9% · #4

4.9% · #6Screen pass3.3% · #18

5.0% · #20No huddle7.2% · #14

42.3% · #30Shotgun52.2% · #21

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

42.6% · #4Man coverage21.2% · #31

28.9% · #10Blitz (5+ rushers)21.9% · #28

31.8% · #10Pressure30.7% · #16

DET scheme profile →GB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Detroit Lions

Amen OgbongbemigaLBLimited Participation in Practice
Amon-Ra St. BrownWRLimited Participation in Practice
Blake MillerOffensive TackleOut
Brian BranchSLimited Participation in Practice
Cade MaysCDid Not Participate In Practice
Christian MahoganyGuardOut
D.J. ReedCBDid Not Participate In Practice
DJ WonnumDEDid Not Participate In Practice
Isiah PachecoRunning BackInjured Reserve
Jack CampbellLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Jacob SaylorsRBLimited Participation in Practice
Kerby JosephSLimited Participation in Practice

Green Bay Packers

Aaron BanksGLimited Participation in Practice
Chris BrooksRBLimited Participation in Practice
Christian WatsonWRLimited Participation in Practice
Devonte WyattDefensive TackleQuestionable
Javon HargraveDefensive TackleQuestionable
Jayden ReedWide ReceiverOut
Josh WhyleTEDid Not Participate In Practice
Keisean NixonCBLimited Participation in Practice
Matthew GoldenWide ReceiverQuestionable
Micah ParsonsLBLimited Participation in Practice
Sean RhyanCDid Not Participate In Practice
Travis GloverGDid Not Participate In Practice

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: San Francisco 49ers Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)