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Denver Broncos vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Broncos is the better survivor pick this week

Broncos score 0.340 equity (43.2% win probability) against Commanders at 0.291 — a real gap of 0.048.

DEN team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ KCOpponent@ PHI

43.2%Win prob31.9%

0.340Equity score0.291

+2.5Spread11/11 books+5.5

43.5Game total44.5

▲ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 8 meetings · DEN 4 — WAS 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1588.3ELO rating1464.1

#4ELO rank#24

14-3Record5-12

AFC WestDivisionNFC East

#1Division rank#3

L 3 · W +3 · W +16 · W +7 · L 14Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.2 · #9vs QB19.5 · #30

17.0 · #1vs RB25.6 · #27

27.0 · #9vs WR34.9 · #25

13.7 · #16vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

4 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)

13.05Pressures / game7.47

10-11Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #25Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

12.5% · #7Play action11.9% · #11

7.0% · #9RPO6.3% · #12

5.5% · #3Screen pass3.7% · #16

11.0% · #5No huddle50.2% · #1

54.3% · #16Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

44.4% · #1Man coverage32.0% · #15

32.8% · #6Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

33.7% · #5Pressure31.3% · #14

DEN scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Denver Broncos

Alex ForsythCenterOut
Alex SingletonLinebackerOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
D.J. JonesDefensive TackleOut
Delarrin Turner-YellSafetyQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLinebackerOut
Drew SandersLinebackerQuestionable
Elijah MooreWide ReceiverOut
Evan EngramTight EndOut
Frank CrumOffensive TackleOut
Garret WallowLinebackerQuestionable
Geron ChristianOffensive TackleOut

Washington Commanders

Ale KahoLinebackerOut
Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Colson YankoffTight EndOut
Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
Daron PayneDTLimited Participation in Practice
Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)