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Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Broncos is the better survivor pick this week

Broncos score 0.340 equity (43.2% win probability) against 49ers at 0.306 — a real gap of 0.034.

DEN team page →SF team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ KCOpponent@ LA

43.2%Win prob35.8%

0.340Equity score0.306

+2.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

43.5Game total47.5

▲ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 4DEN @ SFnot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · DEN 4 — SF 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1588.3ELO rating1559.3

#4ELO rank#9

14-3Record12-5

AFC WestDivisionNFC West

#1Division rank#2

L 3 · W +3 · W +16 · W +7 · L 14Last 5newest firstL 35 · W +4 · L 10 · W +4 · W +21

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.2 · #9vs QB17.1 · #20

17.0 · #1vs RB23.6 · #22

27.0 · #9vs WR32.2 · #21

13.7 · #16vs TE14.8 · #23

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

4 (2025)Sacks / game1.21 (2025)

13.05Pressures / game5.95

10-11Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows22-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #25Pre-snap motion55.1% · #2

12.5% · #7Play action10.8% · #17

7.0% · #9RPO0.6% · #31

5.5% · #3Screen pass3.0% · #23

11.0% · #5No huddle3.7% · #26

54.3% · #16Shotgun45.0% · #27

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

44.4% · #1Man coverage26.6% · #24

32.8% · #6Blitz (5+ rushers)22.6% · #25

33.7% · #5Pressure23.2% · #31

DEN scheme profile →SF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Denver Broncos

Alex ForsythCenterOut
Alex SingletonLinebackerOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
D.J. JonesDefensive TackleOut
Delarrin Turner-YellSafetyQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLinebackerOut
Drew SandersLinebackerQuestionable
Elijah MooreWide ReceiverOut
Evan EngramTight EndOut
Frank CrumOffensive TackleOut
Garret WallowLinebackerQuestionable
Geron ChristianOffensive TackleOut

San Francisco 49ers

Alfred CollinsDTOut
Ameer AbdullahRunning BackQuestionable
Austen PleasantsOffensive TackleOut
Ben BartchGuardQuestionable
Brandon AiyukWide ReceiverOut
Brock PurdyQuarterbackOut
CJ WestDefensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackInjured Reserve
Dee WintersLinebackerOut
Demarcus RobinsonWide ReceiverSuspension
Dominick PuniGuardQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLBFull Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)