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Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

49ers is the better survivor pick this week

49ers score 0.561 equity (79.4% win probability) against Broncos at 0.443 — a real gap of 0.118.

DEN team page →SF team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ CAROpponentvs LV

57.2%Win prob79.4%

0.443Equity score0.561

−2.5Spread11/11 books−10.0

44.0Game total52.0

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 4DEN @ SF14-24 · SF

All-time series: 8 meetings · DEN 4 — SF 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1589.8ELO rating1575.5

#2ELO rank#3

6-2Record6-1

AFC WestDivisionNFC West

#1Division rank#1

W +4 · W +14 · W +3 · W +6 · L 10Last 5newest firstL 9 · W +6 · W +3 · W +10 · W +6

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

16.4 · #13vs QB—

25.3 · #22vs RB—

27.5 · #7vs WR—

16.7 · #23vs TE—

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3 (2026)Sacks / game2.14 (2026)

11.14Pressures / game9.71

12-12Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows24-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #25Pre-snap motion55.1% · #2

12.5% · #7Play action10.8% · #17

7.0% · #9RPO0.6% · #31

5.5% · #3Screen pass3.0% · #23

11.0% · #5No huddle3.7% · #26

54.3% · #16Shotgun45.0% · #27

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

44.4% · #1Man coverage26.6% · #24

32.8% · #6Blitz (5+ rushers)22.6% · #25

33.7% · #5Pressure23.2% · #31

DEN scheme profile →SF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Denver Broncos

Brandon JonesSDid Not Participate In Practice
Caleb LohnerTight EndInjured Reserve
Courtland SuttonWRLimited Participation in Practice
Eyioma UwazurikeDEDid Not Participate In Practice
Frank CrumOffensive TackleInjured Reserve
Jaylen WaddleWRFull Participation in Practice
Jonah ColemanRunning BackInjured Reserve
Jonathon CooperLinebackerOut
Kris Abrams-DraineCBDid Not Participate In Practice
Levelle BaileyLinebackerInjured Reserve
Nick GargiuloGuardOut
Pat BryantWRFull Participation in Practice

San Francisco 49ers

Christian KirkWRLimited Participation in Practice
Christian McCaffreyRBDid Not Participate In Practice
Deebo Samuel Sr.WRDid Not Participate In Practice
Demarcus RobinsonWRLimited Participation in Practice
Garret WallowLBLimited Participation in Practice
Kurtis RourkeQuarterbackOut
Luke GiffordLBLimited Participation in Practice
Marques SigleSLimited Participation in Practice
Mike EvansWRDid Not Participate In Practice
Mykel WilliamsDEFull Participation in Practice
Nate HobbsCBLimited Participation in Practice
Nick BosaDELimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)