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Denver Broncos vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Steelers is the better survivor pick this week

Steelers score 0.459 equity (67.2% win probability) against Broncos at 0.340 — a real gap of 0.120.

DEN team page →PIT team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ KCOpponentvs ATL

43.2%Win prob67.2%

0.340Equity score0.459

+2.5Spread11/11 books−5.0

43.5Game total41.5

▲ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 12DEN @ PITnot played yet

All-time series: 13 meetings · DEN 7 — PIT 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1588.3ELO rating1529.4

#4ELO rank#13

14-3Record10-7

AFC WestDivisionAFC North

#1Division rank#1

L 3 · W +3 · W +16 · W +7 · L 14Last 5newest firstL 24 · W +2 · L 7 · W +5 · W +13

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.2 · #9vs QB18.8 · #27

17.0 · #1vs RB19.5 · #8

27.0 · #9vs WR35.2 · #26

13.7 · #16vs TE16.6 · #29

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

4 (2025)Sacks / game2.83 (2025)

13.05Pressures / game9

10-11Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows15-18

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #25Pre-snap motion43.4% · #16

12.5% · #7Play action9.2% · #27

7.0% · #9RPO7.0% · #10

5.5% · #3Screen pass6.6% · #1

11.0% · #5No huddle9.7% · #7

54.3% · #16Shotgun54.2% · #17

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

44.4% · #1Man coverage36.9% · #10

32.8% · #6Blitz (5+ rushers)31.4% · #8

33.7% · #5Pressure29.5% · #20

DEN scheme profile →PIT scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Denver Broncos

Alex ForsythCenterOut
Alex SingletonLinebackerOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
D.J. JonesDefensive TackleOut
Delarrin Turner-YellSafetyQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLinebackerOut
Drew SandersLinebackerQuestionable
Elijah MooreWide ReceiverOut
Evan EngramTight EndOut
Frank CrumOffensive TackleOut
Garret WallowLinebackerQuestionable
Geron ChristianOffensive TackleOut

Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron RodgersQuarterbackQuestionable
Alex HighsmithLinebackerOut
Andrus PeatGuardQuestionable
Brandin EcholsCornerbackQuestionable
Brandon JohnsonWide ReceiverQuestionable
Broderick JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Calvin Austin IIIWide ReceiverQuestionable
Cameron McCutcheonCornerbackInjured Reserve
Christian KuntzLong SnapperQuestionable
Chuck ClarkSafetyOut
Darius SlayCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)