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Denver Broncos vs New York Jets

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jets is the better survivor pick this week

Jets score 0.354 equity (47.4% win probability) against Broncos at 0.340 — a real gap of 0.015.

DEN team page →NYJ team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ KCOpponent@ TEN

43.2%Win prob47.4%

0.340Equity score0.354

+2.5Spread11/11 books+1.5

43.5Game total38.5

▲ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.005

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 14DEN @ NYJnot played yet

All-time series: 16 meetings · DEN 10 — NYJ 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1588.3ELO rating1379.3

#4ELO rank#30

14-3Record3-14

AFC WestDivisionAFC East

#1Division rank#4

L 3 · W +3 · W +16 · W +7 · L 14Last 5newest firstL 27 · L 32 · L 23 · L 28 · L 24

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.2 · #9vs QB19.9 · #31

17.0 · #1vs RB28.0 · #31

27.0 · #9vs WR30.3 · #16

13.7 · #16vs TE15.2 · #24

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

4 (2025)Sacks / game1.53 (2025)

13.05Pressures / game5.18

10-11Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows3-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #25Pre-snap motion49.8% · #7

12.5% · #7Play action8.6% · #29

7.0% · #9RPO7.1% · #8

5.5% · #3Screen pass3.4% · #17

11.0% · #5No huddle8.1% · #10

54.3% · #16Shotgun59.8% · #8

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

44.4% · #1Man coverage40.5% · #6

32.8% · #6Blitz (5+ rushers)28.3% · #13

33.7% · #5Pressure24.8% · #30

DEN scheme profile →NYJ scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Denver Broncos

Alex ForsythCenterOut
Alex SingletonLinebackerOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
D.J. JonesDefensive TackleOut
Delarrin Turner-YellSafetyQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLinebackerOut
Drew SandersLinebackerQuestionable
Elijah MooreWide ReceiverOut
Evan EngramTight EndOut
Frank CrumOffensive TackleOut
Garret WallowLinebackerQuestionable
Geron ChristianOffensive TackleOut

New York Jets

Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
Allen LazardWide ReceiverOut
Andre CiscoSafetyQuestionable
Arian SmithWide ReceiverOut
Azareye'h ThomasCornerbackQuestionable
Braelon AllenRunning BackOut
Breece HallRBFull Participation in Practice
Bump CooperCornerbackInjured Reserve
Byron CowartDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam JonesLinebackerOut
Chris Smith IISafetyOut
D'Angelo PondsCBLimited Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)