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Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Broncos is the better survivor pick this week

Broncos score 0.340 equity (43.2% win probability) against Saints at 0.250 — a real gap of 0.090.

DEN team page →NO team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ KCOpponent@ DET

43.2%Win prob26.8%

0.340Equity score0.250

+2.5Spread11/11 books+7.0

43.5Game total50.0

▲ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.003

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · DEN 6 — NO 1. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1588.3ELO rating1432.4

#4ELO rank#26

14-3Record6-11

AFC WestDivisionNFC South

#1Division rank#4

L 3 · W +3 · W +16 · W +7 · L 14Last 5newest firstL 2 · W +8 · W +23 · W +3 · W +4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.2 · #9vs QB14.0 · #8

17.0 · #1vs RB20.8 · #13

27.0 · #9vs WR27.8 · #12

13.7 · #16vs TE12.5 · #13

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

4 (2025)Sacks / game2.59 (2025)

13.05Pressures / game8.53

10-11Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows4-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #25Pre-snap motion49.7% · #8

12.5% · #7Play action9.6% · #25

7.0% · #9RPO4.7% · #15

5.5% · #3Screen pass2.7% · #26

11.0% · #5No huddle18.7% · #2

54.3% · #16Shotgun65.7% · #5

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

44.4% · #1Man coverage22.1% · #28

32.8% · #6Blitz (5+ rushers)25.6% · #21

33.7% · #5Pressure28.2% · #24

DEN scheme profile →NO scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Denver Broncos

Alex ForsythCenterOut
Alex SingletonLinebackerOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
D.J. JonesDefensive TackleOut
Delarrin Turner-YellSafetyQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLinebackerOut
Drew SandersLinebackerQuestionable
Elijah MooreWide ReceiverOut
Evan EngramTight EndOut
Frank CrumOffensive TackleOut
Garret WallowLinebackerQuestionable
Geron ChristianOffensive TackleOut

New Orleans Saints

Alontae TaylorCornerbackQuestionable
Alvin KamaraRBLimited Participation in Practice
Asim RichardsOffensive TackleQuestionable
Audric EstiméRBDid Not Participate In Practice
Barry WesleyOffensive TackleOut
Bryan BreseeDefensive TackleQuestionable
Bub MeansWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Cameron JordanLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Cesar RuizGuardOut
Chase YoungDefensive EndOut
Chris OlaveWide ReceiverOut
Davon GodchauxDTDid Not Participate In Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)