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Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Patriots is the better survivor pick this week

Patriots score 0.388 equity (52.6% win probability) against Broncos at 0.340 — a real gap of 0.049.

DEN team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ KCOpponent@ SEA

43.2%Win prob52.6%

0.340Equity score0.388

+2.5Spread11/4 books−0.0

43.5Game total29.5

▲ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.163

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 17DEN @ NEnot played yet

All-time series: 23 meetings · DEN 10 — NE 13. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1588.3ELO rating1561.9

#4ELO rank#8

14-3Record14-3

AFC WestDivisionAFC East

#1Division rank#1

L 3 · W +3 · W +16 · W +7 · L 14Last 5newest firstL 16 · W +3 · W +12 · W +13 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.2 · #9vs QB14.7 · #11

17.0 · #1vs RB19.0 · #5

27.0 · #9vs WR29.2 · #13

13.7 · #16vs TE14.7 · #20

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

4 (2025)Sacks / game2.24 (2025)

13.05Pressures / game7.95

10-11Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #25Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24

12.5% · #7Play action10.8% · #19

7.0% · #9RPO1.3% · #30

5.5% · #3Screen pass2.3% · #30

11.0% · #5No huddle2.8% · #29

54.3% · #16Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

44.4% · #1Man coverage32.5% · #14

32.8% · #6Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7

33.7% · #5Pressure29.8% · #18

DEN scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Denver Broncos

Alex ForsythCenterOut
Alex SingletonLinebackerOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
D.J. JonesDefensive TackleOut
Delarrin Turner-YellSafetyQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLinebackerOut
Drew SandersLinebackerQuestionable
Elijah MooreWide ReceiverOut
Evan EngramTight EndOut
Frank CrumOffensive TackleOut
Garret WallowLinebackerQuestionable
Geron ChristianOffensive TackleOut

New England Patriots

Anfernee JenningsLinebackerOut
Ben BrownCOut
Bradyn SwinsonLinebackerOut
Brenden SchoolerSafetyQuestionable
Caedan WallaceOffensive TackleOut
Carlton Davis IIICornerbackQuestionable
Charles WoodsCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTFull Participation in Practice
Christian GonzalezCornerbackOut
CJ DippreTight EndOut
Deneric PrinceRunning BackQuestionable
Efton Chism IIIWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)