NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Patriots is the better survivor pick this week

Patriots score 0.459 equity (60.5% win probability) against Broncos at 0.443 — a real gap of 0.016.

DEN team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ CAROpponentvs GB
57.2%Win prob60.5%
0.443Equity score0.459
−2.5Spread11/11 books−3.0
44.0Game total45.5
▼ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 17DEN @ NEnot played yet

All-time series: 23 meetings · DEN 10 — NE 13. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1589.8ELO rating1557.2
#2ELO rank#7
6-2Record5-3
AFC WestDivisionAFC East
#1Division rank#2
W +4 · W +14 · W +3 · W +6 · L 10Last 5newest firstW +5 · L 6 · W +7 · W +28 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

16.4 · #13vs QB15.1 · #10
25.3 · #22vs RB18.9 · #6
27.5 · #7vs WR33.8 · #20
16.7 · #23vs TE11.9 · #8

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3 (2026)Sacks / game2.43 (2026)
11.14Pressures / game8.14
12-12Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows10-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #25Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24
12.5% · #7Play action10.8% · #19
7.0% · #9RPO1.3% · #30
5.5% · #3Screen pass2.3% · #30
11.0% · #5No huddle2.8% · #29
54.3% · #16Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

44.4% · #1Man coverage32.5% · #14
32.8% · #6Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7
33.7% · #5Pressure29.8% · #18
DEN scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Denver Broncos

  • Brandon JonesSDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Caleb LohnerTight EndInjured Reserve
  • Courtland SuttonWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Eyioma UwazurikeDEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Frank CrumOffensive TackleInjured Reserve
  • Jaylen WaddleWRFull Participation in Practice
  • Jonah ColemanRunning BackInjured Reserve
  • Jonathon CooperLinebackerOut
  • Kris Abrams-DraineCBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Levelle BaileyLinebackerInjured Reserve
  • Nick GargiuloGuardOut
  • Pat BryantWRFull Participation in Practice

New England Patriots

  • A.J. BrownWRDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Alijah Vera-TuckerGuardOut
  • Ben BrownCenterOut
  • Carlton Davis IIICBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Channing CanadaCornerbackOut
  • Christian BarmoreDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Drake MayeQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Dre'Mont JonesLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Gabe JacasLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Greg Van RotenGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Hunter HenryTEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Karon PruntyCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

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