Compare

Denver Broncos vs Minnesota Vikings

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Vikings is the better survivor pick this week

Vikings score 0.382 equity (53.0% win probability) against Broncos at 0.340 — a real gap of 0.042.

DEN team page →MIN team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ KCOpponentvs GB

43.2%Win prob53.0%

0.340Equity score0.382

+2.5Spread11/11 books−1.5

43.5Game total46.5

▲ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.002

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · DEN 4 — MIN 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1588.3ELO rating1547.9

#4ELO rank#10

14-3Record9-8

AFC WestDivisionNFC North

#1Division rank#4

L 3 · W +3 · W +16 · W +7 · L 14Last 5newest firstW +13 · W +13 · W +3 · W +8 · W +31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.2 · #9vs QB11.1 · #1

17.0 · #1vs RB19.6 · #9

27.0 · #9vs WR23.7 · #1

13.7 · #16vs TE10.7 · #5

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

4 (2025)Sacks / game2.88 (2025)

13.05Pressures / game9.06

10-11Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows11-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #25Pre-snap motion41.3% · #23

12.5% · #7Play action12.5% · #8

7.0% · #9RPO3.7% · #20

5.5% · #3Screen pass4.2% · #10

11.0% · #5No huddle6.1% · #15

54.3% · #16Shotgun45.6% · #26

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

44.4% · #1Man coverage19.0% · #32

32.8% · #6Blitz (5+ rushers)46.2% · #1

33.7% · #5Pressure34.1% · #4

DEN scheme profile →MIN scheme profile →

Injury report

2025 week 21 · nflverse + highlightly

Denver Broncos

Alex ForsythCQuestionable
Alex SingletonLinebackerOut
Bo NixQBOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
D.J. JonesDefensive TackleOut
Delarrin Turner-YellSafetyQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLinebackerOut
Drew SandersLBOut
Elijah MooreWide ReceiverOut
Evan EngramTight EndOut
Frank CrumTFull Participation in Practice
Garret WallowLinebackerQuestionable

Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Sr.Running BackQuestionable
Adam ThielenWide ReceiverOut
Andrew Van GinkelLinebackerOut
Austin KeysLinebackerOut
Ben SimsTight EndOut
Ben YurosekTight EndOut
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Brian O'NeillOffensive TackleOut
Caleb TiernanTLimited Participation in Practice
Chaz ChamblissLinebackerOut
Christian DarrisawOffensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)