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Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles Rams

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Rams is the better survivor pick this week

Rams score 0.444 equity (64.2% win probability) against Broncos at 0.336 — a real gap of 0.108.

DEN team page →LA team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ KCOpponentvs SF

43.1%Win prob64.2%

0.336Equity score0.444

+2.5Spread11/11 books−3.5

43.5Game total47.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 3LA @ DENnot played yet

All-time series: 7 meetings · DEN 1 — LA 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1588.3ELO rating1582.5

#4ELO rank#5

14-3Record12-5

AFC WestDivisionNFC West

#1Division rank#3

L 3 · W +3 · W +16 · W +7 · L 14Last 5newest firstL 4 · W +3 · W +3 · W +17 · L 3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.2 · #9vs QB15.2 · #14

17.0 · #1vs RB20.6 · #12

27.0 · #9vs WR31.7 · #20

13.7 · #16vs TE13.1 · #15

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

4 (2025)Sacks / game2.6 (2025)

13.05Pressures / game11.05

10-11Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows16-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #25Pre-snap motion50.6% · #4

12.5% · #7Play action15.8% · #1

7.0% · #9RPO0.4% · #32

5.5% · #3Screen pass3.0% · #21

11.0% · #5No huddle6.0% · #17

54.3% · #16Shotgun34.8% · #32

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

44.4% · #1Man coverage27.0% · #23

32.8% · #6Blitz (5+ rushers)20.8% · #29

33.7% · #5Pressure32.1% · #9

DEN scheme profile →LA scheme profile →

Injury report

2025 week 21 · nflverse + highlightly

Denver Broncos

Alex ForsythCQuestionable
Alex SingletonLinebackerOut
Bo NixQBOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
D.J. JonesDefensive TackleOut
Delarrin Turner-YellSafetyQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLinebackerOut
Drew SandersLBOut
Elijah MooreWide ReceiverOut
Evan EngramTight EndOut
Frank CrumTFull Participation in Practice
Garret WallowLinebackerQuestionable

Los Angeles Rams

Aaron DonaldDEOut
Ahkello WitherspoonCornerbackQuestionable
Alaric JacksonTFull Participation in Practice
Alex WardLong SnapperOut
Anthony TorresTight EndInjured Reserve
Beaux LimmerCenterOut
Byron YoungLBFull Participation in Practice
Colby ParkinsonTight EndOut
D.J. HumphriesOffensive TackleOut
Darious WilliamsCornerbackOut
Davante AdamsWide ReceiverQuestionable
David QuessenberryOffensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)