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Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Texans is the better survivor pick this week

Texans score 0.361 equity (47.2% win probability) against Broncos at 0.340 — a real gap of 0.021.

DEN team page →HOU team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ KCOpponentvs BUF

43.2%Win prob47.2%

0.340Equity score0.361

+2.5Spread11/11 books+1.5

43.5Game total45.0

▲ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.008

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 11 meetings · DEN 7 — HOU 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1588.3ELO rating1573.1

#4ELO rank#6

14-3Record12-5

AFC WestDivisionAFC South

#1Division rank#2

L 3 · W +3 · W +16 · W +7 · L 14Last 5newest firstL 12 · W +24 · W +8 · W +4 · W +2

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.2 · #9vs QB12.8 · #3

17.0 · #1vs RB20.1 · #11

27.0 · #9vs WR25.9 · #3

13.7 · #16vs TE12.3 · #11

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

4 (2025)Sacks / game2.95 (2025)

13.05Pressures / game8.42

10-11Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-10

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #25Pre-snap motion44.7% · #14

12.5% · #7Play action11.2% · #16

7.0% · #9RPO1.3% · #29

5.5% · #3Screen pass2.2% · #31

11.0% · #5No huddle3.6% · #27

54.3% · #16Shotgun51.0% · #23

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

44.4% · #1Man coverage31.5% · #16

32.8% · #6Blitz (5+ rushers)22.9% · #23

33.7% · #5Pressure30.7% · #15

DEN scheme profile →HOU scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Denver Broncos

Alex ForsythCenterOut
Alex SingletonLinebackerOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
D.J. JonesDefensive TackleOut
Delarrin Turner-YellSafetyQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLinebackerOut
Drew SandersLinebackerQuestionable
Elijah MooreWide ReceiverOut
Evan EngramTight EndOut
Frank CrumOffensive TackleOut
Garret WallowLinebackerQuestionable
Geron ChristianOffensive TackleOut

Houston Texans

Aireontae ErseryOffensive TackleOut
Alijah HuzzieCornerbackOut
Ameer SpeedCornerbackOut
Azeez Al-ShaairLinebackerOut
Blake FisherOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braxton BerriosWide ReceiverOut
Brevin JordanTight EndInjured Reserve
British BrooksRunning BackOut
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSafetyQuestionable
C.J. StroudQuarterbackOut
Cade StoverTight EndQuestionable
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)