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Denver Broncos vs Green Bay Packers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Packers is the better survivor pick this week

Packers score 0.368 equity (47.0% win probability) against Broncos at 0.340 — a real gap of 0.029.

DEN team page →GB team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ KCOpponent@ MIN

43.2%Win prob47.0%

0.340Equity score0.368

+2.5Spread11/11 books+1.5

43.5Game total46.5

▲ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.002

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 8 meetings · DEN 4 — GB 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1588.3ELO rating1527.4

#4ELO rank#15

14-3Record9-7-1

AFC WestDivisionNFC North

#1Division rank#2

L 3 · W +3 · W +16 · W +7 · L 14Last 5newest firstL 4 · L 13 · L 17 · L 6 · L 8

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.2 · #9vs QB15.0 · #12

17.0 · #1vs RB21.9 · #17

27.0 · #9vs WR31.3 · #18

13.7 · #16vs TE12.1 · #10

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

4 (2025)Sacks / game2.06 (2025)

13.05Pressures / game10

10-11Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows17-15-1

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #25Pre-snap motion44.1% · #15

12.5% · #7Play action11.7% · #12

7.0% · #9RPO7.9% · #4

5.5% · #3Screen pass3.3% · #18

11.0% · #5No huddle7.2% · #14

54.3% · #16Shotgun52.2% · #21

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

44.4% · #1Man coverage21.2% · #31

32.8% · #6Blitz (5+ rushers)21.9% · #28

33.7% · #5Pressure30.7% · #16

DEN scheme profile →GB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Denver Broncos

Alex ForsythCenterOut
Alex SingletonLinebackerOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
D.J. JonesDefensive TackleOut
Delarrin Turner-YellSafetyQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLinebackerOut
Drew SandersLinebackerQuestionable
Elijah MooreWide ReceiverOut
Evan EngramTight EndOut
Frank CrumOffensive TackleOut
Garret WallowLinebackerQuestionable
Geron ChristianOffensive TackleOut

Green Bay Packers

Aaron BanksGLimited Participation in Practice
Anthony BeltonOffensive TackleOut
Barryn SorrellLBLimited Participation in Practice
Bo MeltonCornerbackQuestionable
Brandon McManusPlace KickerOut
Brenton Cox Jr.Defensive EndQuestionable
Christian WatsonWide ReceiverOut
Collin OliverDefensive EndOut
Devonte WyattDTLimited Participation in Practice
Donovan JenningsGuardOut
Dontayvion WicksWide ReceiverQuestionable
Edgerrin CooperLinebackerOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)