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Denver Broncos vs Detroit Lions

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Lions is the better survivor pick this week

Lions score 0.500 equity (73.2% win probability) against Broncos at 0.340 — a real gap of 0.161.

DEN team page →DET team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ KCOpponentvs NO

43.2%Win prob73.2%

0.340Equity score0.500

+2.5Spread11/11 books−7.0

43.5Game total50.0

▲ 0.003Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.003

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 8 meetings · DEN 5 — DET 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1588.3ELO rating1564.1

#4ELO rank#7

14-3Record9-8

AFC WestDivisionNFC North

#1Division rank#3

L 3 · W +3 · W +16 · W +7 · L 14Last 5newest firstW +3 · L 13 · L 5 · L 7 · W +14

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

14.2 · #9vs QB18.2 · #24

17.0 · #1vs RB19.4 · #7

27.0 · #9vs WR35.6 · #29

13.7 · #16vs TE13.7 · #17

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

4 (2025)Sacks / game3 (2025)

13.05Pressures / game9.25

10-11Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows16-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.9% · #25Pre-snap motion47.3% · #9

12.5% · #7Play action12.0% · #10

7.0% · #9RPO3.1% · #24

5.5% · #3Screen pass4.9% · #6

11.0% · #5No huddle5.0% · #20

54.3% · #16Shotgun42.3% · #30

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

44.4% · #1Man coverage42.6% · #4

32.8% · #6Blitz (5+ rushers)28.9% · #10

33.7% · #5Pressure31.8% · #10

DEN scheme profile →DET scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Denver Broncos

Alex ForsythCenterOut
Alex SingletonLinebackerOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
D.J. JonesDefensive TackleOut
Delarrin Turner-YellSafetyQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLinebackerOut
Drew SandersLinebackerQuestionable
Elijah MooreWide ReceiverOut
Evan EngramTight EndOut
Frank CrumOffensive TackleOut
Garret WallowLinebackerQuestionable
Geron ChristianOffensive TackleOut

Detroit Lions

Ahmed HassaneinDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex AnzaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Alim McNeillDefensive TackleOut
Amon-Ra St. BrownWide ReceiverOut
Chris SmithDefensive TackleOut
Christian IzienSLimited Participation in Practice
Craig ReynoldsRunning BackOut
D.J. ReedCornerbackQuestionable
Dan JacksonSafetyInjured Reserve
Daniel ThomasSafetyQuestionable
Derrick MooreDELimited Participation in Practice
Dicaprio BootleCornerbackInjured Reserve

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Lions)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)