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Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Cowboys is the better survivor pick this week

Cowboys score 0.483 equity (68.1% win probability) against Commanders at 0.263 — a real gap of 0.219.

DAL team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ INDOpponentvs LA

68.1%Win prob33.2%

0.483Equity score0.263

−5.5Spread11/11 books+4.5

51.5Game total48.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 2WAS @ DAL20-37 · DAL

Week 18DAL @ WASnot played yet

All-time series: 55 meetings · DAL 39 — WAS 16. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1471.6ELO rating1466.6

#20ELO rank#22

3-5Record2-4-1

NFC EastDivisionNFC East

#2Division rank#3

L 3 · W +17 · L 10 · L 8 · W +4Last 5newest firstW +17 · L 6 · T 0 · L 17 · W +2

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

20.2 · #26vs QB20.0 · #25

26.4 · #24vs RB19.8 · #9

35.6 · #23vs WR33.6 · #18

13.7 · #13vs TE20.7 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.43 (2026)Sacks / game1.83 (2026)

7.86Pressures / game10

25-16-1Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows9-15

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.1% · #11Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

13.0% · #5Play action11.9% · #11

4.1% · #18RPO6.3% · #12

2.7% · #27Screen pass3.7% · #16

7.8% · #11No huddle50.2% · #1

51.7% · #22Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

26.0% · #25Man coverage32.0% · #15

28.4% · #12Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

31.8% · #11Pressure31.3% · #14

DAL scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Dallas Cowboys

Broderick JonesTDid Not Participate In Practice
Caleb DownsSDid Not Participate In Practice
Camden BrownWide ReceiverOut
Cobie DurantCornerbackOut
Dee WintersLBLimited Participation in Practice
DeMarvion OvershownLinebackerOut
Drew SheltonTFull Participation in Practice
George PickensWRLimited Participation in Practice
Israel AbanikandaRunning BackOut
Jake FergusonTEDid Not Participate In Practice
Joey Porter Jr.CBFull Participation in Practice
Jonathan BullardDEFull Participation in Practice

Washington Commanders

Charles OmenihuDefensive EndOut
Colson YankoffTEFull Participation in Practice
Isaac YiadomCornerbackOut
Javon KinlawDefensive TackleQuestionable
Javontae Jean-BaptisteLinebackerInjured Reserve
Jayden DanielsQBFull Participation in Practice
Jer'Zhan NewtonDTFull Participation in Practice
John BatesTELimited Participation in Practice
Sam CosmiGLimited Participation in Practice
Shy TuttleDTLimited Participation in Practice
Stefon DiggsWRDid Not Participate In Practice
Terry McLaurinWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)