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Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Cowboys is the better survivor pick this week

Cowboys score 0.426 equity (59.3% win probability) against Buccaneers at 0.310 — a real gap of 0.116.

DAL team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ NYGOpponent@ CIN

59.3%Win prob35.6%

0.426Equity score0.310

−3.0Spread11/11 books+3.5

48.0Game total50.5

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.004

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 5TB @ DALnot played yet

All-time series: 15 meetings · DAL 9 — TB 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1485.3ELO rating1487.8

#19ELO rank#18

7-9-1Record8-9

NFC EastDivisionNFC South

#2Division rank#2

L 17 · W +7 · L 17 · L 8 · L 14Last 5newest firstW +2 · L 3 · L 3 · L 1 · L 4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

23.3 · #32vs QB19.5 · #29

25.7 · #28vs RB22.2 · #18

39.3 · #32vs WR31.5 · #19

12.3 · #12vs TE15.8 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2 (2025)Sacks / game2.18 (2025)

10.76Pressures / game7.82

24-13-1Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.1% · #11Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5

13.0% · #5Play action8.4% · #31

4.1% · #18RPO6.4% · #11

2.7% · #27Screen pass5.1% · #5

7.8% · #11No huddle5.5% · #19

51.7% · #22Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

26.0% · #25Man coverage30.3% · #18

28.4% · #12Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3

31.8% · #11Pressure34.1% · #3

DAL scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Dallas Cowboys

Ajani CorneliusTLimited Participation in Practice
Alijah ClarkSafetyOut
Bruce HarmonCornerbackQuestionable
Caelen CarsonCornerbackOut
CeeDee LambWide ReceiverOut
Christian MatthewCornerbackQuestionable
Cooper BeebeCenterQuestionable
DeMarvion OvershownLinebackerQuestionable
Donovan WilsonSafetyQuestionable
Earnest Brown IVDefensive EndQuestionable
Hakeem AdenijiOffensive TackleOut
Jack SanbornLinebackerOut

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anthony NelsonLinebackerOut
Anthony Walker Jr.LinebackerQuestionable
Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyQuestionable
Ben BredesonGuardQuestionable
Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
Billy SchrauthGFull Participation in Practice
Bucky IrvingRunning BackOut
Calijah KanceyDefensive TackleQuestionable
Chris GodwinWide ReceiverOut
Christian IzienSafetyOut
Christian RozeboomLBLimited Participation in Practice
Connor BazelakQuarterbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)