NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Dallas Cowboys vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Cowboys is the better survivor pick this week

Cowboys score 0.476 equity (68.0% win probability) against Buccaneers at 0.258 — a real gap of 0.218.

DAL team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ INDOpponent@ CHI
68.0%Win prob29.5%
0.476Equity score0.258
−5.5Spread11/11 books+6.0
51.5Game total47.5
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 5TB @ DAL24-16 · TB

All-time series: 16 meetings · DAL 9 — TB 7. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1471.6ELO rating1474.2
#20ELO rank#19
3-5Record3-5
NFC EastDivisionNFC South
#2Division rank#2
L 3 · W +17 · L 10 · L 8 · W +4Last 5newest firstW +16 · W +30 · L 7 · W +8 · L 3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

20.2 · #26vs QB11.6 · #3
26.4 · #24vs RB16.9 · #1
35.6 · #23vs WR28.5 · #8
13.7 · #13vs TE14.8 · #19

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

1.43 (2026)Sacks / game2.29 (2026)
7.86Pressures / game7.43
25-16-1Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows11-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.1% · #11Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5
13.0% · #5Play action8.4% · #31
4.1% · #18RPO6.4% · #11
2.7% · #27Screen pass5.1% · #5
7.8% · #11No huddle5.5% · #19
51.7% · #22Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

26.0% · #25Man coverage30.3% · #18
28.4% · #12Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3
31.8% · #11Pressure34.1% · #3
DAL scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Dallas Cowboys

  • Broderick JonesTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Caleb DownsSDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Camden BrownWide ReceiverOut
  • Cobie DurantCornerbackOut
  • Dee WintersLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • DeMarvion OvershownLinebackerOut
  • Drew SheltonTFull Participation in Practice
  • George PickensWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Israel AbanikandaRunning BackOut
  • Jake FergusonTEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Joey Porter Jr.CBFull Participation in Practice
  • Jonathan BullardDEFull Participation in Practice

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyOut
  • Baker MayfieldQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
  • Cade OttonTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Cody MauchGFull Participation in Practice
  • Elijah RobertsDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Emeka EgbukaWRDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Jalen McMillanWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Kenny GainwellRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • SirVocea DennisLinebackerOut
  • Tykee SmithSLimited Participation in Practice
  • Yaya DiabyLBDid Not Participate In Practice

Relevant to this matchup

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