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Dallas Cowboys vs Detroit Lions

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Lions is the better survivor pick this week

Lions score 0.500 equity (73.2% win probability) against Cowboys at 0.426 — a real gap of 0.074.

DAL team page →DET team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ NYGOpponentvs NO

59.3%Win prob73.2%

0.426Equity score0.500

−3.0Spread11/11 books−7.0

48.0Game total50.0

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.003

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 18 meetings · DAL 11 — DET 7. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1485.3ELO rating1564.1

#19ELO rank#7

7-9-1Record9-8

NFC EastDivisionNFC North

#2Division rank#3

L 17 · W +7 · L 17 · L 8 · L 14Last 5newest firstW +3 · L 13 · L 5 · L 7 · W +14

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

23.3 · #32vs QB18.2 · #24

25.7 · #28vs RB19.4 · #7

39.3 · #32vs WR35.6 · #29

12.3 · #12vs TE13.7 · #17

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2 (2025)Sacks / game3 (2025)

10.76Pressures / game9.25

24-13-1Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows16-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.1% · #11Pre-snap motion47.3% · #9

13.0% · #5Play action12.0% · #10

4.1% · #18RPO3.1% · #24

2.7% · #27Screen pass4.9% · #6

7.8% · #11No huddle5.0% · #20

51.7% · #22Shotgun42.3% · #30

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

26.0% · #25Man coverage42.6% · #4

28.4% · #12Blitz (5+ rushers)28.9% · #10

31.8% · #11Pressure31.8% · #10

DAL scheme profile →DET scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Dallas Cowboys

Ajani CorneliusTLimited Participation in Practice
Alijah ClarkSafetyOut
Bruce HarmonCornerbackQuestionable
Caelen CarsonCornerbackOut
CeeDee LambWide ReceiverOut
Christian MatthewCornerbackQuestionable
Cooper BeebeCenterQuestionable
DeMarvion OvershownLinebackerQuestionable
Donovan WilsonSafetyQuestionable
Earnest Brown IVDefensive EndQuestionable
Hakeem AdenijiOffensive TackleOut
Jack SanbornLinebackerOut

Detroit Lions

Ahmed HassaneinDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex AnzaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Alim McNeillDefensive TackleOut
Amon-Ra St. BrownWide ReceiverOut
Chris SmithDefensive TackleOut
Christian IzienSLimited Participation in Practice
Craig ReynoldsRunning BackOut
D.J. ReedCornerbackQuestionable
Dan JacksonSafetyInjured Reserve
Daniel ThomasSafetyQuestionable
Derrick MooreDELimited Participation in Practice
Dicaprio BootleCornerbackInjured Reserve

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Lions)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)