NFL Survivor Edge

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Cleveland Browns vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Commanders is the better survivor pick this week

Commanders score 0.297 equity (32.2% win probability) against Browns at 0.215 — a real gap of 0.081.

CLE team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ JAXOpponent@ PHI
22.4%Win prob32.2%
0.215Equity score0.297
+8.5Spread11/11 books+5.5
40.0Game total44.5
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · CLE 3 — WAS 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1419.8ELO rating1464.1
#27ELO rank#24
5-12Record5-12
AFC NorthDivisionNFC East
#4Division rank#3
W +2 · W +7 · L 3 · L 28 · L 2Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.3 · #5vs QB19.5 · #30
22.8 · #19vs RB25.6 · #27
26.9 · #8vs WR34.9 · #25
12.1 · #9vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.12 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)
9.29Pressures / game7.47
6-9Primetime record2021–2024 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.3% · #27Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18
11.2% · #15Play action11.9% · #11
3.0% · #25RPO6.3% · #12
4.2% · #11Screen pass3.7% · #16
7.5% · #12No huddle50.2% · #1
55.8% · #14Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

41.3% · #5Man coverage32.0% · #15
28.1% · #15Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16
35.1% · #1Pressure31.3% · #14
CLE scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Cleveland Browns

  • Adin HuntingtonDefensive EndQuestionable
  • Alex WrightDefensive EndOut
  • Anthony KendallCornerbackInjured Reserve
  • Blake WhiteheartTight EndQuestionable
  • Brenden BatesTight EndOut
  • Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Cameron McGroneLinebackerQuestionable
  • Carson SchwesingerLBFull Participation in Practice
  • Cedric TillmanWide ReceiverOut
  • Cornelius LucasOffensive TackleOut
  • David NjokuTight EndOut
  • Dawand JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable

Washington Commanders

  • Ale KahoLinebackerOut
  • Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
  • Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
  • Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
  • Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
  • Colson YankoffTight EndOut
  • Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
  • Daron PayneDefensive TackleOut
  • Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
  • Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
  • Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

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