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Cleveland Browns vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Buccaneers is the better survivor pick this week

Buccaneers score 0.310 equity (35.6% win probability) against Browns at 0.214 — a real gap of 0.096.

CLE team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ JAXOpponent@ CIN

22.3%Win prob35.6%

0.214Equity score0.310

+8.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

40.0Game total50.5

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.004

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 2CLE @ TBnot played yet

All-time series: 6 meetings · CLE 2 — TB 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1419.8ELO rating1487.8

#27ELO rank#18

5-12Record8-9

AFC NorthDivisionNFC South

#4Division rank#2

W +2 · W +7 · L 3 · L 28 · L 2Last 5newest firstW +2 · L 3 · L 3 · L 1 · L 4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.3 · #5vs QB19.5 · #29

22.8 · #19vs RB22.2 · #18

26.9 · #8vs WR31.5 · #19

12.1 · #9vs TE15.8 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.12 (2025)Sacks / game2.18 (2025)

9.29Pressures / game7.82

6-9Primetime record2021–2024 standalone windows10-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.3% · #27Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5

11.2% · #15Play action8.4% · #31

3.0% · #25RPO6.4% · #11

4.2% · #11Screen pass5.1% · #5

7.5% · #12No huddle5.5% · #19

55.8% · #14Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

41.3% · #5Man coverage30.3% · #18

28.1% · #15Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3

35.1% · #1Pressure34.1% · #3

CLE scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Cleveland Browns

Adin HuntingtonDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex WrightDefensive EndOut
Anthony KendallCornerbackInjured Reserve
Blake WhiteheartTight EndQuestionable
Brenden BatesTight EndOut
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleQuestionable
Cameron McGroneLinebackerQuestionable
Carson SchwesingerLBFull Participation in Practice
Cedric TillmanWide ReceiverOut
Cornelius LucasOffensive TackleOut
David NjokuTight EndOut
Dawand JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anthony NelsonLinebackerOut
Anthony Walker Jr.LinebackerQuestionable
Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyQuestionable
Ben BredesonGuardQuestionable
Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
Billy SchrauthGFull Participation in Practice
Bucky IrvingRunning BackOut
Calijah KanceyDefensive TackleQuestionable
Chris GodwinWide ReceiverOut
Christian IzienSafetyOut
Christian RozeboomLBLimited Participation in Practice
Connor BazelakQuarterbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)