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Cleveland Browns vs San Francisco 49ers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

49ers is the better survivor pick this week

49ers score 0.306 equity (35.8% win probability) against Browns at 0.214 — a real gap of 0.092.

CLE team page →SF team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ JAXOpponent@ LA

22.3%Win prob35.8%

0.214Equity score0.306

+8.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

40.0Game total47.5

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · CLE 4 — SF 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1419.8ELO rating1559.3

#27ELO rank#9

5-12Record12-5

AFC NorthDivisionNFC West

#4Division rank#2

W +2 · W +7 · L 3 · L 28 · L 2Last 5newest firstL 35 · W +4 · L 10 · W +4 · W +21

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.3 · #5vs QB17.1 · #20

22.8 · #19vs RB23.6 · #22

26.9 · #8vs WR32.2 · #21

12.1 · #9vs TE14.8 · #23

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.12 (2025)Sacks / game1.21 (2025)

9.29Pressures / game5.95

6-9Primetime record2021–2024 standalone windows22-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.3% · #27Pre-snap motion55.1% · #2

11.2% · #15Play action10.8% · #17

3.0% · #25RPO0.6% · #31

4.2% · #11Screen pass3.0% · #23

7.5% · #12No huddle3.7% · #26

55.8% · #14Shotgun45.0% · #27

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

41.3% · #5Man coverage26.6% · #24

28.1% · #15Blitz (5+ rushers)22.6% · #25

35.1% · #1Pressure23.2% · #31

CLE scheme profile →SF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Cleveland Browns

Adin HuntingtonDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex WrightDefensive EndOut
Anthony KendallCornerbackInjured Reserve
Blake WhiteheartTight EndQuestionable
Brenden BatesTight EndOut
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleQuestionable
Cameron McGroneLinebackerQuestionable
Carson SchwesingerLBFull Participation in Practice
Cedric TillmanWide ReceiverOut
Cornelius LucasOffensive TackleOut
David NjokuTight EndOut
Dawand JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable

San Francisco 49ers

Alfred CollinsDTOut
Ameer AbdullahRunning BackQuestionable
Austen PleasantsOffensive TackleOut
Ben BartchGuardQuestionable
Brandon AiyukWide ReceiverOut
Brock PurdyQuarterbackOut
CJ WestDefensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackInjured Reserve
Dee WintersLinebackerOut
Demarcus RobinsonWide ReceiverSuspension
Dominick PuniGuardQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLBFull Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)