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Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Patriots is the better survivor pick this week

Patriots score 0.388 equity (52.6% win probability) against Browns at 0.214 — a real gap of 0.174.

CLE team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ JAXOpponent@ SEA

22.3%Win prob52.6%

0.214Equity score0.388

+9.0Spread11/4 books−0.0

40.0Game total29.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.163

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 13 meetings · CLE 2 — NE 11. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1419.8ELO rating1561.9

#27ELO rank#8

5-12Record14-3

AFC NorthDivisionAFC East

#4Division rank#1

W +2 · W +7 · L 3 · L 28 · L 2Last 5newest firstL 16 · W +3 · W +12 · W +13 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.3 · #5vs QB14.7 · #11

22.8 · #19vs RB19.0 · #5

26.9 · #8vs WR29.2 · #13

12.1 · #9vs TE14.7 · #20

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.12 (2025)Sacks / game2.24 (2025)

9.29Pressures / game7.95

6-9Primetime record2021–2024 standalone windows10-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.3% · #27Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24

11.2% · #15Play action10.8% · #19

3.0% · #25RPO1.3% · #30

4.2% · #11Screen pass2.3% · #30

7.5% · #12No huddle2.8% · #29

55.8% · #14Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

41.3% · #5Man coverage32.5% · #14

28.1% · #15Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7

35.1% · #1Pressure29.8% · #18

CLE scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Cleveland Browns

Adin HuntingtonDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex WrightDefensive EndOut
Anthony KendallCornerbackInjured Reserve
Blake WhiteheartTight EndQuestionable
Brenden BatesTight EndOut
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleQuestionable
Cameron McGroneLinebackerQuestionable
Carson SchwesingerLBFull Participation in Practice
Cedric TillmanWide ReceiverOut
Cornelius LucasOffensive TackleOut
David NjokuTight EndOut
Dawand JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable

New England Patriots

Anfernee JenningsLinebackerOut
Ben BrownCOut
Bradyn SwinsonLinebackerOut
Brenden SchoolerSafetyQuestionable
Caedan WallaceOffensive TackleOut
Carlton Davis IIICornerbackQuestionable
Charles WoodsCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTFull Participation in Practice
Christian GonzalezCornerbackOut
CJ DippreTight EndOut
Deneric PrinceRunning BackQuestionable
Efton Chism IIIWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)