NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Cleveland Browns vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Browns play Jaguars in Week 1

They face each other, so only one can be used this week. On real de-vigged market prices JAX carries the higher survivor equity score.

CLE team page →JAX team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ JAXOpponentvs CLE
22.4%Win prob77.6%
0.215Equity score0.535
+8.5Spread11/11 books−8.5
40.0Game total40.0
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Head-to-head this week

week 1 · EverBank Stadium

Matchup
CLE @ JAX
Spread (home)
−8.5 (11 books)
Total
40.0 (11 books)
Kickoff
Sun, 13 Sep 2026 17:00

Opened JAX −7.5, now JAX −8.5 · moved 1.0 toward JAX · Total 40.5 → 40.0 (−0.5)(86 snapshots)

Forecast: 99.3°F · wind 2.1 mph · 0% precip · Clouds

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 1CLE @ JAXnot played yet

All-time series: 18 meetings · CLE 8 — JAX 10. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1419.8ELO rating1528.9
#27ELO rank#14
5-12Record13-4
AFC NorthDivisionAFC South
#4Division rank#1
W +2 · W +7 · L 3 · L 28 · L 2Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +34 · W +6 · W +14 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.3 · #5vs QB15.9 · #15
22.8 · #19vs RB18.7 · #2
26.9 · #8vs WR31.2 · #17
12.1 · #9vs TE14.8 · #22

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.12 (2025)Sacks / game1.83 (2025)
9.29Pressures / game9.28
6-9Primetime record2021–2024 standalone windows5-5

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.3% · #27Pre-snap motion47.1% · #12
11.2% · #15Play action10.2% · #22
3.0% · #25RPO3.6% · #21
4.2% · #11Screen pass3.8% · #15
7.5% · #12No huddle6.1% · #16
55.8% · #14Shotgun50.5% · #24

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

41.3% · #5Man coverage25.4% · #26
28.1% · #15Blitz (5+ rushers)27.3% · #18
35.1% · #1Pressure27.9% · #26
CLE scheme profile →JAX scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Cleveland Browns

  • Adin HuntingtonDefensive EndQuestionable
  • Alex WrightDefensive EndOut
  • Anthony KendallCornerbackInjured Reserve
  • Blake WhiteheartTight EndQuestionable
  • Brenden BatesTight EndOut
  • Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Cameron McGroneLinebackerQuestionable
  • Carson SchwesingerLBFull Participation in Practice
  • Cedric TillmanWide ReceiverOut
  • Cornelius LucasOffensive TackleOut
  • David NjokuTight EndOut
  • Dawand JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable

Jacksonville Jaguars

  • Andrew WingardSafetyOut
  • Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleOut
  • Arik ArmsteadDefensive EndQuestionable
  • Austin JohnsonDefensive TackleOut
  • Bhayshul TutenRunning BackOut
  • Brian Thomas Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
  • Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
  • Cole Van LanenTLimited Participation in Practice
  • Danny StriggowDefensive EndQuestionable
  • DeeJay DallasRunning BackOut
  • Dyami BrownWide ReceiverOut
  • Emmanuel OgbahDefensive EndOut

Relevant to this matchup

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