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Cleveland Browns vs Detroit Lions

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Lions is the better survivor pick this week

Lions score 0.500 equity (73.2% win probability) against Browns at 0.214 — a real gap of 0.286.

CLE team page →DET team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ JAXOpponentvs NO

22.3%Win prob73.2%

0.214Equity score0.500

+8.5Spread11/11 books−7.0

40.0Game total50.0

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.003

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · CLE 2 — DET 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1419.8ELO rating1564.1

#27ELO rank#7

5-12Record9-8

AFC NorthDivisionNFC North

#4Division rank#3

W +2 · W +7 · L 3 · L 28 · L 2Last 5newest firstW +3 · L 13 · L 5 · L 7 · W +14

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

13.3 · #5vs QB18.2 · #24

22.8 · #19vs RB19.4 · #7

26.9 · #8vs WR35.6 · #29

12.1 · #9vs TE13.7 · #17

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.12 (2025)Sacks / game3 (2025)

9.29Pressures / game9.25

6-9Primetime record2021–2024 standalone windows16-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

39.3% · #27Pre-snap motion47.3% · #9

11.2% · #15Play action12.0% · #10

3.0% · #25RPO3.1% · #24

4.2% · #11Screen pass4.9% · #6

7.5% · #12No huddle5.0% · #20

55.8% · #14Shotgun42.3% · #30

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

41.3% · #5Man coverage42.6% · #4

28.1% · #15Blitz (5+ rushers)28.9% · #10

35.1% · #1Pressure31.8% · #10

CLE scheme profile →DET scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Cleveland Browns

Adin HuntingtonDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex WrightDefensive EndOut
Anthony KendallCornerbackInjured Reserve
Blake WhiteheartTight EndQuestionable
Brenden BatesTight EndOut
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleQuestionable
Cameron McGroneLinebackerQuestionable
Carson SchwesingerLBFull Participation in Practice
Cedric TillmanWide ReceiverOut
Cornelius LucasOffensive TackleOut
David NjokuTight EndOut
Dawand JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable

Detroit Lions

Ahmed HassaneinDefensive EndQuestionable
Alex AnzaloneLinebackerQuestionable
Alim McNeillDefensive TackleOut
Amon-Ra St. BrownWide ReceiverOut
Chris SmithDefensive TackleOut
Christian IzienSLimited Participation in Practice
Craig ReynoldsRunning BackOut
D.J. ReedCornerbackQuestionable
Dan JacksonSafetyInjured Reserve
Daniel ThomasSafetyQuestionable
Derrick MooreDELimited Participation in Practice
Dicaprio BootleCornerbackInjured Reserve

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(mentions Lions)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)