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Cincinnati Bengals vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Bengals is the better survivor pick this week

Bengals score 0.459 equity (60.6% win probability) against Commanders at 0.263 — a real gap of 0.196.

CIN team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ ATLOpponentvs LA

60.6%Win prob33.2%

0.459Equity score0.263

−3.0Spread11/11 books+4.5

52.5Game total48.0

▲ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 11CIN @ WASnot played yet

All-time series: 6 meetings · CIN 3 — WAS 2 · 1 ties. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1514.0ELO rating1466.6

#15ELO rank#22

5-2Record2-4-1

AFC NorthDivisionNFC East

#2Division rank#3

W +7 · W +22 · W +7 · L 5 · L 3Last 5newest firstW +17 · L 6 · T 0 · L 17 · W +2

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

17.8 · #15vs QB20.0 · #25

19.4 · #7vs RB19.8 · #9

32.8 · #16vs WR33.6 · #18

16.5 · #22vs TE20.7 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.5 (2026)Sacks / game1.83 (2026)

10.67Pressures / game10

16-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows9-15

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.1% · #20Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

8.5% · #30Play action11.9% · #11

7.3% · #6RPO6.3% · #12

3.3% · #19Screen pass3.7% · #16

2.5% · #31No huddle50.2% · #1

67.0% · #3Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

36.6% · #11Man coverage32.0% · #15

17.6% · #32Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

29.4% · #22Pressure31.3% · #14

CIN scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Cincinnati Bengals

Amarius MimsOffensive TackleQuestionable
B.J. HillDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam GrandyTight EndQuestionable
Cam SampleDefensive EndOut
Cam Taylor-BrittCornerbackQuestionable
Cedric JohnsonDEDid Not Participate In Practice
Charlie JonesWide ReceiverOut
Cordell VolsonGuardOut
Dalton RisnerGuardQuestionable
DJ Turner IICBDid Not Participate In Practice
Drew SampleTight EndQuestionable
Dylan FairchildGuardOut

Washington Commanders

Charles OmenihuDefensive EndOut
Colson YankoffTEFull Participation in Practice
Isaac YiadomCornerbackOut
Javon KinlawDefensive TackleQuestionable
Javontae Jean-BaptisteLinebackerInjured Reserve
Jayden DanielsQBFull Participation in Practice
Jer'Zhan NewtonDTFull Participation in Practice
John BatesTELimited Participation in Practice
Sam CosmiGLimited Participation in Practice
Shy TuttleDTLimited Participation in Practice
Stefon DiggsWRDid Not Participate In Practice
Terry McLaurinWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: San Francisco 49ers Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)