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Cincinnati Bengals vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bengals is the better survivor pick this week

Bengals score 0.436 equity (64.3% win probability) against Commanders at 0.297 — a real gap of 0.140.

CIN team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs TBOpponent@ PHI

64.3%Win prob32.2%

0.436Equity score0.297

−3.5Spread11/11 books+5.5

50.5Game total44.5

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 11CIN @ WASnot played yet

All-time series: 6 meetings · CIN 3 — WAS 2 · 1 ties. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1474.0ELO rating1464.1

#22ELO rank#24

6-11Record5-12

AFC NorthDivisionNFC East

#3Division rank#3

L 2 · W +23 · W +24 · L 24 · L 5Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #26vs QB19.5 · #30

28.6 · #32vs RB25.6 · #27

25.3 · #2vs WR34.9 · #25

20.9 · #31vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)

7.12Pressures / game7.47

16-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.1% · #20Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

8.5% · #30Play action11.9% · #11

7.3% · #6RPO6.3% · #12

3.3% · #19Screen pass3.7% · #16

2.5% · #31No huddle50.2% · #1

67.0% · #3Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

36.6% · #11Man coverage32.0% · #15

17.6% · #32Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

29.4% · #22Pressure31.3% · #14

CIN scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Cincinnati Bengals

Amarius MimsOffensive TackleQuestionable
B.J. HillDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam GrandyTight EndQuestionable
Cam SampleDefensive EndOut
Cam Taylor-BrittCornerbackQuestionable
Cedric JohnsonDefensive EndQuestionable
Charlie JonesWide ReceiverOut
Cordell VolsonGuardOut
Dalton RisnerGuardQuestionable
DJ Turner IICornerbackQuestionable
Drew SampleTight EndQuestionable
Dylan FairchildGuardOut

Washington Commanders

Ale KahoLinebackerOut
Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Colson YankoffTight EndOut
Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
Daron PayneDefensive TackleOut
Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)