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Cincinnati Bengals vs San Francisco 49ers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bengals is the better survivor pick this week

Bengals score 0.440 equity (64.4% win probability) against 49ers at 0.306 — a real gap of 0.134.

CIN team page →SF team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs TBOpponent@ LA

64.4%Win prob35.8%

0.440Equity score0.306

−3.5Spread11/11 books+3.5

50.5Game total47.5

▲ 0.004Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 8 meetings · CIN 4 — SF 4. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1474.0ELO rating1559.3

#22ELO rank#9

6-11Record12-5

AFC NorthDivisionNFC West

#3Division rank#2

L 2 · W +23 · W +24 · L 24 · L 5Last 5newest firstL 35 · W +4 · L 10 · W +4 · W +21

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #26vs QB17.1 · #20

28.6 · #32vs RB23.6 · #22

25.3 · #2vs WR32.2 · #21

20.9 · #31vs TE14.8 · #23

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2 (2025)Sacks / game1.21 (2025)

7.12Pressures / game5.95

16-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows22-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.1% · #20Pre-snap motion55.1% · #2

8.5% · #30Play action10.8% · #17

7.3% · #6RPO0.6% · #31

3.3% · #19Screen pass3.0% · #23

2.5% · #31No huddle3.7% · #26

67.0% · #3Shotgun45.0% · #27

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

36.6% · #11Man coverage26.6% · #24

17.6% · #32Blitz (5+ rushers)22.6% · #25

29.4% · #22Pressure23.2% · #31

CIN scheme profile →SF scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Cincinnati Bengals

Amarius MimsOffensive TackleQuestionable
B.J. HillDTLimited Participation in Practice
Cam GrandyTight EndQuestionable
Cam SampleDefensive EndOut
Cam Taylor-BrittCornerbackQuestionable
Cedric JohnsonDefensive EndQuestionable
Charlie JonesWide ReceiverOut
Cordell VolsonGuardOut
Dalton RisnerGuardQuestionable
DJ Turner IICBLimited Participation in Practice
Drew SampleTight EndQuestionable
Dylan FairchildGuardOut

San Francisco 49ers

Alfred CollinsDTOut
Ameer AbdullahRunning BackQuestionable
Austen PleasantsOffensive TackleOut
Ben BartchGuardQuestionable
Brandon AiyukWide ReceiverOut
Brock PurdyQuarterbackOut
CJ WestDefensive TackleOut
Corey KinerRunning BackInjured Reserve
Dee WintersLinebackerOut
Demarcus RobinsonWide ReceiverSuspension
Dominick PuniGuardQuestionable
Dre GreenlawLBFull Participation in Practice

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)