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Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Steelers is the better survivor pick this week

Steelers score 0.454 equity (67.0% win probability) against Bengals at 0.436 — a real gap of 0.018.

CIN team page →PIT team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs TBOpponentvs ATL

64.3%Win prob67.0%

0.436Equity score0.454

−3.5Spread11/11 books−4.5

50.5Game total41.5

▼ 0.001Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.003

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 3CIN @ PITnot played yet

Week 10PIT @ CINnot played yet

All-time series: 56 meetings · CIN 16 — PIT 40. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1474.0ELO rating1529.4

#22ELO rank#13

6-11Record10-7

AFC NorthDivisionAFC North

#3Division rank#1

L 2 · W +23 · W +24 · L 24 · L 5Last 5newest firstL 24 · W +2 · L 7 · W +5 · W +13

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #26vs QB18.8 · #27

28.6 · #32vs RB19.5 · #8

25.3 · #2vs WR35.2 · #26

20.9 · #31vs TE16.6 · #29

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2 (2025)Sacks / game2.83 (2025)

7.12Pressures / game9

16-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows15-18

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.1% · #20Pre-snap motion43.4% · #16

8.5% · #30Play action9.2% · #27

7.3% · #6RPO7.0% · #10

3.3% · #19Screen pass6.6% · #1

2.5% · #31No huddle9.7% · #7

67.0% · #3Shotgun54.2% · #17

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

36.6% · #11Man coverage36.9% · #10

17.6% · #32Blitz (5+ rushers)31.4% · #8

29.4% · #22Pressure29.5% · #20

CIN scheme profile →PIT scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Cincinnati Bengals

Amarius MimsOffensive TackleQuestionable
B.J. HillDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam GrandyTight EndQuestionable
Cam SampleDefensive EndOut
Cam Taylor-BrittCornerbackQuestionable
Cedric JohnsonDefensive EndQuestionable
Charlie JonesWide ReceiverOut
Cordell VolsonGuardOut
Dalton RisnerGuardQuestionable
DJ Turner IICornerbackQuestionable
Drew SampleTight EndQuestionable
Dylan FairchildGuardOut

Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron RodgersQuarterbackQuestionable
Alex HighsmithLinebackerOut
Andrus PeatGuardQuestionable
Brandin EcholsCornerbackQuestionable
Brandon JohnsonWide ReceiverQuestionable
Broderick JonesOffensive TackleQuestionable
Brodric Martin-RhodesDefensive TackleOut
Calvin Austin IIIWide ReceiverQuestionable
Cameron McCutcheonCornerbackInjured Reserve
Christian KuntzLong SnapperQuestionable
Chuck ClarkSafetyOut
Darius SlayCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)