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Cincinnati Bengals vs New Orleans Saints

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bengals is the better survivor pick this week

Bengals score 0.440 equity (64.4% win probability) against Saints at 0.250 — a real gap of 0.190.

CIN team page →NO team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs TBOpponent@ DET

64.4%Win prob26.8%

0.440Equity score0.250

−3.5Spread11/11 books+7.0

50.5Game total50.0

▲ 0.004Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.003

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 12NO @ CINnot played yet

All-time series: 6 meetings · CIN 4 — NO 2. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1474.0ELO rating1432.4

#22ELO rank#26

6-11Record6-11

AFC NorthDivisionNFC South

#3Division rank#4

L 2 · W +23 · W +24 · L 24 · L 5Last 5newest firstL 2 · W +8 · W +23 · W +3 · W +4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #26vs QB14.0 · #8

28.6 · #32vs RB20.8 · #13

25.3 · #2vs WR27.8 · #12

20.9 · #31vs TE12.5 · #13

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2 (2025)Sacks / game2.59 (2025)

7.12Pressures / game8.53

16-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows4-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.1% · #20Pre-snap motion49.7% · #8

8.5% · #30Play action9.6% · #25

7.3% · #6RPO4.7% · #15

3.3% · #19Screen pass2.7% · #26

2.5% · #31No huddle18.7% · #2

67.0% · #3Shotgun65.7% · #5

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

36.6% · #11Man coverage22.1% · #28

17.6% · #32Blitz (5+ rushers)25.6% · #21

29.4% · #22Pressure28.2% · #24

CIN scheme profile →NO scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Cincinnati Bengals

Amarius MimsOffensive TackleQuestionable
B.J. HillDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam GrandyTight EndQuestionable
Cam SampleDefensive EndOut
Cam Taylor-BrittCornerbackQuestionable
Cedric JohnsonDefensive EndQuestionable
Charlie JonesWide ReceiverOut
Cordell VolsonGuardOut
Dalton RisnerGuardQuestionable
DJ Turner IICornerbackQuestionable
Drew SampleTight EndQuestionable
Dylan FairchildGuardOut

New Orleans Saints

Alontae TaylorCornerbackQuestionable
Alvin KamaraRBLimited Participation in Practice
Asim RichardsOffensive TackleQuestionable
Audric EstiméRBDid Not Participate In Practice
Barry WesleyOffensive TackleOut
Bryan BreseeDefensive TackleQuestionable
Bub MeansWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Cameron JordanLBDid Not Participate In Practice
Cesar RuizGuardOut
Chase YoungDefensive EndOut
Chris OlaveWide ReceiverOut
Devaughn VeleWide ReceiverQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)