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Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bengals is the better survivor pick this week

Bengals score 0.440 equity (64.4% win probability) against Patriots at 0.388 — a real gap of 0.051.

CIN team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs TBOpponent@ SEA

64.4%Win prob52.6%

0.440Equity score0.388

−3.5Spread11/4 books−0.0

50.5Game total29.5

▲ 0.004Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.163

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 13 meetings · CIN 3 — NE 10. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1474.0ELO rating1561.9

#22ELO rank#8

6-11Record14-3

AFC NorthDivisionAFC East

#3Division rank#1

L 2 · W +23 · W +24 · L 24 · L 5Last 5newest firstL 16 · W +3 · W +12 · W +13 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #26vs QB14.7 · #11

28.6 · #32vs RB19.0 · #5

25.3 · #2vs WR29.2 · #13

20.9 · #31vs TE14.7 · #20

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2 (2025)Sacks / game2.24 (2025)

7.12Pressures / game7.95

16-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.1% · #20Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24

8.5% · #30Play action10.8% · #19

7.3% · #6RPO1.3% · #30

3.3% · #19Screen pass2.3% · #30

2.5% · #31No huddle2.8% · #29

67.0% · #3Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

36.6% · #11Man coverage32.5% · #14

17.6% · #32Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7

29.4% · #22Pressure29.8% · #18

CIN scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Cincinnati Bengals

Amarius MimsOffensive TackleQuestionable
B.J. HillDTLimited Participation in Practice
Cam GrandyTight EndQuestionable
Cam SampleDefensive EndOut
Cam Taylor-BrittCornerbackQuestionable
Cedric JohnsonDefensive EndQuestionable
Charlie JonesWide ReceiverOut
Cordell VolsonGuardOut
Dalton RisnerGuardQuestionable
DJ Turner IICBLimited Participation in Practice
Drew SampleTight EndQuestionable
Dylan FairchildGuardOut

New England Patriots

Anfernee JenningsLinebackerOut
Ben BrownCOut
Bradyn SwinsonLinebackerOut
Brenden SchoolerSafetyQuestionable
Caedan WallaceOffensive TackleOut
Carlton Davis IIICornerbackQuestionable
Charles WoodsCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTFull Participation in Practice
Christian GonzalezCornerbackOut
CJ DippreTight EndOut
Deneric PrinceRunning BackQuestionable
Efton Chism IIIWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)