NFL Survivor Edge

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Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Patriots is the better survivor pick this week

Patriots score 0.457 equity (60.5% win probability) against Bengals at 0.450 — a real gap of 0.007.

CIN team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ ATLOpponentvs GB
60.7%Win prob60.5%
0.450Equity score0.457
−3.0Spread11/11 books−3.0
52.5Game total45.0
▲ 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 13 meetings · CIN 3 — NE 10. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1514.0ELO rating1557.2
#15ELO rank#7
5-2Record5-3
AFC NorthDivisionAFC East
#2Division rank#2
W +7 · W +22 · W +7 · L 5 · L 3Last 5newest firstW +5 · L 6 · W +7 · W +28 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

17.8 · #15vs QB15.1 · #10
19.4 · #7vs RB18.9 · #6
32.8 · #16vs WR33.8 · #20
16.5 · #22vs TE11.9 · #8

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

3.5 (2026)Sacks / game2.43 (2026)
10.67Pressures / game8.14
16-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.1% · #20Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24
8.5% · #30Play action10.8% · #19
7.3% · #6RPO1.3% · #30
3.3% · #19Screen pass2.3% · #30
2.5% · #31No huddle2.8% · #29
67.0% · #3Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

36.6% · #11Man coverage32.5% · #14
17.6% · #32Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7
29.4% · #22Pressure29.8% · #18
CIN scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 9 · nflverse + highlightly

Cincinnati Bengals

  • Amarius MimsOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • B.J. HillDefensive TackleQuestionable
  • Cam GrandyTight EndQuestionable
  • Cam SampleDefensive EndOut
  • Cam Taylor-BrittCornerbackQuestionable
  • Cedric JohnsonDEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Charlie JonesWide ReceiverOut
  • Cordell VolsonGuardOut
  • Dalton RisnerGuardQuestionable
  • DJ Turner IICBDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Drew SampleTight EndQuestionable
  • Dylan FairchildGuardOut

New England Patriots

  • A.J. BrownWRDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Alijah Vera-TuckerGuardOut
  • Ben BrownCenterOut
  • Carlton Davis IIICBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Channing CanadaCornerbackOut
  • Christian BarmoreDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Drake MayeQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Dre'Mont JonesLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Gabe JacasLBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Greg Van RotenGLimited Participation in Practice
  • Hunter HenryTEDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Karon PruntyCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

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