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Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Chargers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Chargers is the better survivor pick this week

Chargers score 0.551 equity (80.1% win probability) against Bengals at 0.440 — a real gap of 0.111.

CIN team page →LAC team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs TBOpponentvs ARI

64.4%Win prob80.1%

0.440Equity score0.551

−3.5Spread11/11 books−9.5

50.5Game total47.5

▲ 0.004Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 15 meetings · CIN 5 — LAC 10. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1474.0ELO rating1536.9

#22ELO rank#11

6-11Record11-6

AFC NorthDivisionAFC West

#3Division rank#2

L 2 · W +23 · W +24 · L 24 · L 5Last 5newest firstL 13 · L 16 · L 4 · W +17 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #26vs QB12.6 · #2

28.6 · #32vs RB18.7 · #3

25.3 · #2vs WR27.4 · #11

20.9 · #31vs TE10.5 · #4

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2 (2025)Sacks / game2.78 (2025)

7.12Pressures / game8

16-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows15-16

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.1% · #20Pre-snap motion42.2% · #19

8.5% · #30Play action11.5% · #14

7.3% · #6RPO2.0% · #27

3.3% · #19Screen pass2.8% · #25

2.5% · #31No huddle3.9% · #25

67.0% · #3Shotgun59.0% · #10

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

36.6% · #11Man coverage23.6% · #27

17.6% · #32Blitz (5+ rushers)22.1% · #27

29.4% · #22Pressure31.3% · #12

CIN scheme profile →LAC scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Cincinnati Bengals

Amarius MimsOffensive TackleQuestionable
B.J. HillDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam GrandyTight EndQuestionable
Cam SampleDefensive EndOut
Cam Taylor-BrittCornerbackQuestionable
Cedric JohnsonDefensive EndQuestionable
Charlie JonesWide ReceiverOut
Cordell VolsonGuardOut
Dalton RisnerGuardQuestionable
DJ Turner IICornerbackQuestionable
Drew SampleTight EndQuestionable
Dylan FairchildGuardOut

Los Angeles Chargers

Benjamin St-JusteCornerbackOut
Bobby HartOffensive TackleOut
Bradley BozemanCenterOut
Brenen ThompsonWRLimited Participation in Practice
Bud DupreeLinebackerQuestionable
Cam HartCornerbackOut
Da'Shawn HandDefensive TackleQuestionable
Deane LeonardCBDid Not Participate In Practice
Del'Shawn PhillipsLinebackerOut
Dez FitzpatrickWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Donte JacksonCornerbackQuestionable
Elijah MoldenCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(mentions Chargers)