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Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bengals is the better survivor pick this week

Bengals score 0.440 equity (64.4% win probability) against Chiefs at 0.410 — a real gap of 0.029.

CIN team page →KC team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs TBOpponentvs DEN

64.4%Win prob56.8%

0.440Equity score0.410

−3.5Spread11/11 books−2.5

50.5Game total43.5

▲ 0.004Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.003

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 14KC @ CINnot played yet

All-time series: 15 meetings · CIN 9 — KC 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1474.0ELO rating1519.9

#22ELO rank#16

6-11Record6-11

AFC NorthDivisionAFC West

#3Division rank#3

L 2 · W +23 · W +24 · L 24 · L 5Last 5newest firstL 2 · L 7 · L 17 · L 3 · L 10

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #26vs QB15.1 · #13

28.6 · #32vs RB19.4 · #6

25.3 · #2vs WR27.3 · #10

20.9 · #31vs TE11.0 · #7

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2 (2025)Sacks / game2.06 (2025)

7.12Pressures / game7.88

16-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows35-12

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.1% · #20Pre-snap motion39.9% · #26

8.5% · #30Play action8.1% · #32

7.3% · #6RPO11.5% · #1

3.3% · #19Screen pass4.7% · #7

2.5% · #31No huddle2.4% · #32

67.0% · #3Shotgun67.6% · #2

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

36.6% · #11Man coverage37.0% · #9

17.6% · #32Blitz (5+ rushers)33.6% · #4

29.4% · #22Pressure33.6% · #6

CIN scheme profile →KC scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Cincinnati Bengals

Amarius MimsOffensive TackleQuestionable
B.J. HillDTLimited Participation in Practice
Cam GrandyTight EndQuestionable
Cam SampleDefensive EndOut
Cam Taylor-BrittCornerbackQuestionable
Cedric JohnsonDefensive EndQuestionable
Charlie JonesWide ReceiverOut
Cordell VolsonGuardOut
Dalton RisnerGuardQuestionable
DJ Turner IICBLimited Participation in Practice
Drew SampleTight EndQuestionable
Dylan FairchildGuardOut

Kansas City Chiefs

Ashton GillotteDEFull Participation in Practice
Chamarri ConnerSDid Not Participate In Practice
Chris Roland-WallaceCornerbackOut
Dameon PierceRunning BackOut
Deon BushSafetyQuestionable
Derrick NnadiDefensive TackleOut
Elijah MitchellRunning BackOut
Ethan DriskellOffensive TackleQuestionable
Felix Anudike-UzomahDefensive EndInjured Reserve
Gardner MinshewQuarterbackOut
George KarlaftisDefensive EndOut
Hollywood BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)