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Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Jaguars is the better survivor pick this week

Jaguars score 0.536 equity (77.7% win probability) against Bengals at 0.440 — a real gap of 0.096.

CIN team page →JAX team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs TBOpponentvs CLE

64.4%Win prob77.7%

0.440Equity score0.536

−3.5Spread11/11 books−8.5

50.5Game total40.0

▲ 0.004Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 4JAX @ CINnot played yet

All-time series: 18 meetings · CIN 9 — JAX 9. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1474.0ELO rating1528.9

#22ELO rank#14

6-11Record13-4

AFC NorthDivisionAFC South

#3Division rank#1

L 2 · W +23 · W +24 · L 24 · L 5Last 5newest firstL 3 · W +34 · W +6 · W +14 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #26vs QB15.9 · #15

28.6 · #32vs RB18.7 · #2

25.3 · #2vs WR31.2 · #17

20.9 · #31vs TE14.8 · #22

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2 (2025)Sacks / game1.83 (2025)

7.12Pressures / game9.28

16-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows5-5

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.1% · #20Pre-snap motion47.1% · #12

8.5% · #30Play action10.2% · #22

7.3% · #6RPO3.6% · #21

3.3% · #19Screen pass3.8% · #15

2.5% · #31No huddle6.1% · #16

67.0% · #3Shotgun50.5% · #24

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

36.6% · #11Man coverage25.4% · #26

17.6% · #32Blitz (5+ rushers)27.3% · #18

29.4% · #22Pressure27.9% · #26

CIN scheme profile →JAX scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Cincinnati Bengals

Amarius MimsOffensive TackleQuestionable
B.J. HillDTLimited Participation in Practice
Cam GrandyTight EndQuestionable
Cam SampleDefensive EndOut
Cam Taylor-BrittCornerbackQuestionable
Cedric JohnsonDefensive EndQuestionable
Charlie JonesWide ReceiverOut
Cordell VolsonGuardOut
Dalton RisnerGuardQuestionable
DJ Turner IICBLimited Participation in Practice
Drew SampleTight EndQuestionable
Dylan FairchildGuardOut

Jacksonville Jaguars

Andrew WingardSafetyOut
Anton HarrisonOffensive TackleOut
Arik ArmsteadDefensive EndQuestionable
Austin JohnsonDefensive TackleOut
Bhayshul TutenRunning BackOut
Brian Thomas Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Cody SchraderRunning BackOut
Cole Van LanenTLimited Participation in Practice
Danny StriggowDefensive EndQuestionable
DeeJay DallasRunning BackOut
Dyami BrownWide ReceiverOut
Emmanuel OgbahDefensive EndOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)