NFL Survivor Edge

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Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bengals is the better survivor pick this week

Bengals score 0.440 equity (64.4% win probability) against Colts at 0.331 — a real gap of 0.109.

CIN team page →IND team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs TBOpponentvs BAL
64.4%Win prob38.6%
0.440Equity score0.331
−3.5Spread11/11 books+3.5
50.5Game total48.0
▲ 0.004Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.006

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 16CIN @ INDnot played yet

All-time series: 14 meetings · CIN 5 — IND 9. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1474.0ELO rating1471.9
#22ELO rank#23
6-11Record8-9
AFC NorthDivisionAFC South
#3Division rank#3
L 2 · W +23 · W +24 · L 24 · L 5Last 5newest firstL 8 · L 6 · L 21 · L 2 · L 17

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #26vs QB16.9 · #18
28.6 · #32vs RB20.0 · #10
25.3 · #2vs WR36.1 · #31
20.9 · #31vs TE15.2 · #25

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2 (2025)Sacks / game2.29 (2025)
7.12Pressures / game9.88
16-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows6-8

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.1% · #20Pre-snap motion42.6% · #17
8.5% · #30Play action13.6% · #4
7.3% · #6RPO7.2% · #7
3.3% · #19Screen pass2.7% · #28
2.5% · #31No huddle4.7% · #21
67.0% · #3Shotgun58.7% · #12

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

36.6% · #11Man coverage37.4% · #8
17.6% · #32Blitz (5+ rushers)28.2% · #14
29.4% · #22Pressure29.6% · #19
CIN scheme profile →IND scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Cincinnati Bengals

  • Amarius MimsOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • B.J. HillDTLimited Participation in Practice
  • Cam GrandyTight EndQuestionable
  • Cam SampleDefensive EndOut
  • Cam Taylor-BrittCornerbackQuestionable
  • Cedric JohnsonDefensive EndQuestionable
  • Charlie JonesWide ReceiverOut
  • Cordell VolsonGuardOut
  • Dalton RisnerGuardQuestionable
  • DJ Turner IICBLimited Participation in Practice
  • Drew SampleTight EndQuestionable
  • Dylan FairchildGuardOut

Indianapolis Colts

  • A.J. HaulcySFull Participation in Practice
  • Adonai MitchellWide ReceiverOut
  • Alec PierceWRLimited Participation in Practice
  • Andrew OgletreeTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Anthony GouldWide ReceiverOut
  • Anthony RichardsonQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Bernhard RaimannOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Blake FreelandOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Braden SmithOffensive TackleQuestionable
  • Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
  • Cameron MitchellCornerbackQuestionable
  • Chad MumaLinebackerOut

Relevant to this matchup

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