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Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bengals is the better survivor pick this week

Bengals score 0.440 equity (64.4% win probability) against Texans at 0.361 — a real gap of 0.079.

CIN team page →HOU team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs TBOpponentvs BUF

64.4%Win prob47.2%

0.440Equity score0.361

−3.5Spread11/11 books+1.5

50.5Game total45.0

▲ 0.004Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.008

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 2CIN @ HOUnot played yet

All-time series: 14 meetings · CIN 5 — HOU 9. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1474.0ELO rating1573.1

#22ELO rank#6

6-11Record12-5

AFC NorthDivisionAFC South

#3Division rank#2

L 2 · W +23 · W +24 · L 24 · L 5Last 5newest firstL 12 · W +24 · W +8 · W +4 · W +2

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.4 · #26vs QB12.8 · #3

28.6 · #32vs RB20.1 · #11

25.3 · #2vs WR25.9 · #3

20.9 · #31vs TE12.3 · #11

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2 (2025)Sacks / game2.95 (2025)

7.12Pressures / game8.42

16-10Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-10

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

42.1% · #20Pre-snap motion44.7% · #14

8.5% · #30Play action11.2% · #16

7.3% · #6RPO1.3% · #29

3.3% · #19Screen pass2.2% · #31

2.5% · #31No huddle3.6% · #27

67.0% · #3Shotgun51.0% · #23

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

36.6% · #11Man coverage31.5% · #16

17.6% · #32Blitz (5+ rushers)22.9% · #23

29.4% · #22Pressure30.7% · #15

CIN scheme profile →HOU scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Cincinnati Bengals

Amarius MimsOffensive TackleQuestionable
B.J. HillDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam GrandyTight EndQuestionable
Cam SampleDefensive EndOut
Cam Taylor-BrittCornerbackQuestionable
Cedric JohnsonDefensive EndQuestionable
Charlie JonesWide ReceiverOut
Cordell VolsonGuardOut
Dalton RisnerGuardQuestionable
DJ Turner IICornerbackQuestionable
Drew SampleTight EndQuestionable
Dylan FairchildGuardOut

Houston Texans

Aireontae ErseryOffensive TackleOut
Alijah HuzzieCornerbackOut
Ameer SpeedCornerbackOut
Azeez Al-ShaairLinebackerOut
Blake FisherOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braxton BerriosWide ReceiverOut
Brevin JordanTight EndInjured Reserve
British BrooksRunning BackOut
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSafetyQuestionable
C.J. StroudQuarterbackOut
Cade StoverTight EndQuestionable
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)