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Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bears is the better survivor pick this week

Bears score 0.429 equity (60.2% win probability) against Commanders at 0.297 — a real gap of 0.133.

CHI team page →WAS team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ CAROpponent@ PHI

60.2%Win prob32.2%

0.429Equity score0.297

−3.0Spread11/11 books+5.5

47.0Game total44.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 15 meetings · CHI 5 — WAS 10. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1510.3ELO rating1464.1

#17ELO rank#24

11-6Record5-12

NFC NorthDivisionNFC East

#1Division rank#3

L 3 · W +4 · L 3 · L 4 · W +6Last 5newest firstW +7 · L 7 · L 11 · W +8 · L 31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.1 · #22vs QB19.5 · #30

21.7 · #16vs RB25.6 · #27

35.5 · #27vs WR34.9 · #25

13.1 · #14vs TE15.9 · #27

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.22 (2025)Sacks / game2.47 (2025)

7.94Pressures / game7.47

9-15Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows8-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.2% · #10Pre-snap motion42.3% · #18

14.7% · #2Play action11.9% · #11

3.6% · #22RPO6.3% · #12

4.1% · #13Screen pass3.7% · #16

4.3% · #24No huddle50.2% · #1

44.2% · #28Shotgun71.8% · #1

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.8% · #2Man coverage32.0% · #15

28.7% · #11Blitz (5+ rushers)27.5% · #16

28.7% · #23Pressure31.3% · #14

CHI scheme profile →WAS scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Chicago Bears

Amen OgbongbemigaLinebackerQuestionable
Austin BookerDefensive EndQuestionable
Bill MurrayGuardQuestionable
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleOut
Cairo SantosPlace KickerOut
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Chris WilliamsDefensive TackleOut
Cole KmetTight EndQuestionable
Colston LovelandTight EndQuestionable
D'Marco JacksonLinebackerOut
Darnell WrightOffensive TackleOut
Deion HankinsRunning BackInjured Reserve

Washington Commanders

Ale KahoLinebackerOut
Ben SinnottTEFull Participation in Practice
Brandon ColemanOffensive TackleOut
Charles OmenihuDEFull Participation in Practice
Chase EdmondsRunning BackOut
Chris Rodriguez Jr.Running BackQuestionable
Colson YankoffTight EndOut
Darius RushCornerbackQuestionable
Daron PayneDefensive TackleOut
Deebo SamuelWide ReceiverOut
Dorance ArmstrongDefensive EndQuestionable
Eddie GoldmanDefensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)