NFL Survivor Edge

Compare

Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Bears play Buccaneers in Week 9

They face each other, so only one can be used this week. On real de-vigged market prices CHI carries the higher survivor equity score.

CHI team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs TBOpponent@ CHI
70.6%Win prob29.4%
0.500Equity score0.250
−6.0Spread11/11 books+6.0
47.5Game total47.5
= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Head-to-head this week

week 9 · Soldier Field

Matchup
TB @ CHI
Spread (home)
−6.0 (11 books)
Total
47.5 (11 books)
Kickoff
Mon, 09 Nov 2026 01:20

Opened CHI −3.5, now CHI −6.0 · moved 2.5 toward CHI · Total 48.0 → 47.5 (−0.5)(243 snapshots)

Forecast: 52.1°F · wind 5.5 mph · 0% precip · Clear

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 9TB @ CHInot played yet

All-time series: 20 meetings · CHI 10 — TB 10. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1546.5ELO rating1474.2
#9ELO rank#19
6-2Record3-5
NFC NorthDivisionNFC South
#2Division rank#2
W +17 · W +6 · W +8 · L 24 · W +11Last 5newest firstW +16 · W +30 · L 7 · W +8 · L 3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

19.1 · #22vs QB11.6 · #3
17.8 · #3vs RB16.9 · #1
31.2 · #15vs WR28.5 · #8
12.0 · #9vs TE14.8 · #19

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.71 (2026)Sacks / game2.29 (2026)
9Pressures / game7.43
12-15Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows11-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.2% · #10Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5
14.7% · #2Play action8.4% · #31
3.6% · #22RPO6.4% · #11
4.1% · #13Screen pass5.1% · #5
4.3% · #24No huddle5.5% · #19
44.2% · #28Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.8% · #2Man coverage30.3% · #18
28.7% · #11Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3
28.7% · #23Pressure34.1% · #3
CHI scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 8 · nflverse + highlightly

Chicago Bears

  • Anthony Johnson Jr.SafetyInjured Reserve
  • Braxton JonesOffensive TackleDoubtful
  • Caleb WilliamsQuarterbackQuestionable
  • Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
  • Colston LovelandTEFull Participation in Practice
  • D'Marco JacksonLBQuestionable
  • Grady JarrettDefensive EndDoubtful
  • Jack SanbornLBFull Participation in Practice
  • Jamree KromahDefensive EndOut
  • Jordan van den BergDefensive TackleOut
  • Kentavius StreetDefensive TackleQuestionable
  • Keyshaun ElliottLinebackerOut

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyOut
  • Baker MayfieldQBFull Participation in Practice
  • Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
  • Cade OttonTEFull Participation in Practice
  • Cody MauchGFull Participation in Practice
  • Elijah RobertsDTDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Emeka EgbukaWRDid Not Participate In Practice
  • Jalen McMillanWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
  • Kenny GainwellRBLimited Participation in Practice
  • SirVocea DennisLinebackerOut
  • Tykee SmithSLimited Participation in Practice
  • Yaya DiabyLBDid Not Participate In Practice

Relevant to this matchup

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