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Chicago Bears vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bears is the better survivor pick this week

Bears score 0.418 equity (60.3% win probability) against Buccaneers at 0.310 — a real gap of 0.108.

CHI team page →TB team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ CAROpponent@ CIN

60.3%Win prob35.6%

0.418Equity score0.310

−3.0Spread11/11 books+3.5

47.0Game total50.5

▼ 0.011Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.004

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 9TB @ CHInot played yet

All-time series: 20 meetings · CHI 10 — TB 10. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1510.3ELO rating1487.8

#17ELO rank#18

11-6Record8-9

NFC NorthDivisionNFC South

#1Division rank#2

L 3 · W +4 · L 3 · L 4 · W +6Last 5newest firstW +2 · L 3 · L 3 · L 1 · L 4

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.1 · #22vs QB19.5 · #29

21.7 · #16vs RB22.2 · #18

35.5 · #27vs WR31.5 · #19

13.1 · #14vs TE15.8 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.22 (2025)Sacks / game2.18 (2025)

7.94Pressures / game7.82

9-15Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.2% · #10Pre-snap motion50.2% · #5

14.7% · #2Play action8.4% · #31

3.6% · #22RPO6.4% · #11

4.1% · #13Screen pass5.1% · #5

4.3% · #24No huddle5.5% · #19

44.2% · #28Shotgun54.2% · #18

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.8% · #2Man coverage30.3% · #18

28.7% · #11Blitz (5+ rushers)34.1% · #3

28.7% · #23Pressure34.1% · #3

CHI scheme profile →TB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Chicago Bears

Amen OgbongbemigaLinebackerQuestionable
Austin BookerDefensive EndQuestionable
Bill MurrayGuardQuestionable
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleOut
Cairo SantosPlace KickerOut
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Chris WilliamsDefensive TackleOut
Cole KmetTight EndQuestionable
Colston LovelandTight EndQuestionable
D'Marco JacksonLinebackerOut
Darnell WrightOffensive TackleOut
Deion HankinsRunning BackInjured Reserve

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Anthony NelsonLinebackerOut
Anthony Walker Jr.LinebackerQuestionable
Antoine Winfield Jr.SafetyQuestionable
Ben BredesonGuardQuestionable
Benjamin MorrisonCornerbackOut
Billy SchrauthGFull Participation in Practice
Bucky IrvingRunning BackOut
Calijah KanceyDefensive TackleQuestionable
Chris GodwinWide ReceiverOut
Christian IzienSafetyOut
Christian RozeboomLBLimited Participation in Practice
Connor BazelakQuarterbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)