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Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Eagles is the better survivor pick this week

Eagles score 0.453 equity (67.8% win probability) against Bears at 0.429 — a real gap of 0.024.

CHI team page →PHI team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ CAROpponentvs WAS

60.2%Win prob67.8%

0.429Equity score0.453

−3.0Spread11/11 books−5.5

47.0Game total44.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 3PHI @ CHInot played yet

All-time series: 17 meetings · CHI 5 — PHI 12. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1510.3ELO rating1589.5

#17ELO rank#3

11-6Record11-6

NFC NorthDivisionNFC East

#1Division rank#1

L 3 · W +4 · L 3 · L 4 · W +6Last 5newest firstL 4 · L 7 · W +1 · W +11 · W +31

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.1 · #22vs QB14.5 · #10

21.7 · #16vs RB22.9 · #20

35.5 · #27vs WR26.5 · #6

13.1 · #14vs TE8.3 · #1

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.22 (2025)Sacks / game2.39 (2025)

7.94Pressures / game8.17

9-15Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows19-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.2% · #10Pre-snap motion36.4% · #28

14.7% · #2Play action10.1% · #23

3.6% · #22RPO5.4% · #14

4.1% · #13Screen pass2.1% · #32

4.3% · #24No huddle15.9% · #4

44.2% · #28Shotgun62.9% · #7

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.8% · #2Man coverage43.5% · #3

28.7% · #11Blitz (5+ rushers)19.7% · #31

28.7% · #23Pressure32.8% · #8

CHI scheme profile →PHI scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Chicago Bears

Amen OgbongbemigaLinebackerQuestionable
Austin BookerDefensive EndQuestionable
Bill MurrayGuardQuestionable
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleOut
Cairo SantosPlace KickerOut
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Chris WilliamsDefensive TackleOut
Cole KmetTight EndQuestionable
Colston LovelandTight EndQuestionable
D'Marco JacksonLinebackerOut
Darnell WrightOffensive TackleOut
Deion HankinsRunning BackInjured Reserve

Philadelphia Eagles

A.J. BrownWide ReceiverQuestionable
A.J. WoodsCornerbackQuestionable
Adoree' JacksonCornerbackQuestionable
AJ DillonRunning BackOut
Azeez OjulariLinebackerOut
Brandon JohnsonCornerbackQuestionable
Brett TothCenterOut
Byron YoungDefensive TackleQuestionable
Cam JurgensCenterOut
Cameron LatuTight EndOut
Dallas GoedertTight EndQuestionable
Darius CooperWide ReceiverQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)