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Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bears is the better survivor pick this week

Bears score 0.418 equity (60.3% win probability) against Patriots at 0.388 — a real gap of 0.030.

CHI team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ CAROpponent@ SEA

60.3%Win prob52.6%

0.418Equity score0.388

−3.0Spread11/4 books−0.0

47.0Game total29.5

▼ 0.011Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.163

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 7NE @ CHInot played yet

All-time series: 8 meetings · CHI 2 — NE 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1510.3ELO rating1561.9

#17ELO rank#8

11-6Record14-3

NFC NorthDivisionAFC East

#1Division rank#1

L 3 · W +4 · L 3 · L 4 · W +6Last 5newest firstL 16 · W +3 · W +12 · W +13 · W +28

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.1 · #22vs QB14.7 · #11

21.7 · #16vs RB19.0 · #5

35.5 · #27vs WR29.2 · #13

13.1 · #14vs TE14.7 · #20

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.22 (2025)Sacks / game2.24 (2025)

7.94Pressures / game7.95

9-15Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-11

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.2% · #10Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24

14.7% · #2Play action10.8% · #19

3.6% · #22RPO1.3% · #30

4.1% · #13Screen pass2.3% · #30

4.3% · #24No huddle2.8% · #29

44.2% · #28Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.8% · #2Man coverage32.5% · #14

28.7% · #11Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7

28.7% · #23Pressure29.8% · #18

CHI scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Chicago Bears

Amen OgbongbemigaLinebackerQuestionable
Austin BookerDefensive EndQuestionable
Bill MurrayGuardQuestionable
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleOut
Cairo SantosPlace KickerOut
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Chris WilliamsDefensive TackleOut
Cole KmetTight EndQuestionable
Colston LovelandTight EndQuestionable
D'Marco JacksonLinebackerOut
Darnell WrightOffensive TackleOut
Deion HankinsRunning BackInjured Reserve

New England Patriots

Anfernee JenningsLinebackerOut
Ben BrownCOut
Bradyn SwinsonLinebackerOut
Brenden SchoolerSafetyQuestionable
Caedan WallaceOffensive TackleOut
Carlton Davis IIICornerbackQuestionable
Charles WoodsCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTFull Participation in Practice
Christian GonzalezCornerbackOut
CJ DippreTight EndOut
Deneric PrinceRunning BackQuestionable
Efton Chism IIIWide ReceiverOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)