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Chicago Bears vs New England Patriots

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Bears is the better survivor pick this week

Bears score 0.492 equity (70.5% win probability) against Patriots at 0.457 — a real gap of 0.035.

CHI team page →NE team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs TBOpponentvs GB

70.5%Win prob60.5%

0.492Equity score0.457

−6.0Spread11/11 books−3.0

47.5Game total45.0

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 7NE @ CHI24-30 · CHI

All-time series: 9 meetings · CHI 3 — NE 6. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1546.5ELO rating1557.2

#9ELO rank#7

6-2Record5-3

NFC NorthDivisionAFC East

#2Division rank#2

W +17 · W +6 · W +8 · L 24 · W +11Last 5newest firstW +5 · L 6 · W +7 · W +28 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

19.1 · #22vs QB15.1 · #10

17.8 · #3vs RB18.9 · #6

31.2 · #15vs WR33.8 · #20

12.0 · #9vs TE11.9 · #8

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.71 (2026)Sacks / game2.43 (2026)

9Pressures / game8.14

12-15Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows10-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.2% · #10Pre-snap motion40.2% · #24

14.7% · #2Play action10.8% · #19

3.6% · #22RPO1.3% · #30

4.1% · #13Screen pass2.3% · #30

4.3% · #24No huddle2.8% · #29

44.2% · #28Shotgun46.1% · #25

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.8% · #2Man coverage32.5% · #14

28.7% · #11Blitz (5+ rushers)32.3% · #7

28.7% · #23Pressure29.8% · #18

CHI scheme profile →NE scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 8 · nflverse + highlightly

Chicago Bears

Anthony Johnson Jr.SafetyInjured Reserve
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleDoubtful
Caleb WilliamsQuarterbackQuestionable
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Colston LovelandTEFull Participation in Practice
D'Marco JacksonLBQuestionable
Grady JarrettDefensive EndDoubtful
Jack SanbornLBFull Participation in Practice
Jamree KromahDefensive EndOut
Jordan van den BergDefensive TackleOut
Kentavius StreetDefensive TackleQuestionable
Keyshaun ElliottLinebackerOut

New England Patriots

A.J. BrownWRDid Not Participate In Practice
Alijah Vera-TuckerGuardOut
Ben BrownCenterOut
Carlton Davis IIICBLimited Participation in Practice
Channing CanadaCornerbackOut
Christian BarmoreDTDid Not Participate In Practice
Drake MayeQBFull Participation in Practice
Dre'Mont JonesLBLimited Participation in Practice
Gabe JacasLBLimited Participation in Practice
Greg Van RotenGLimited Participation in Practice
Hunter HenryTEDid Not Participate In Practice
Karon PruntyCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)