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Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Bears is the better survivor pick this week

Bears score 0.500 equity (70.6% win probability) against Vikings at 0.306 — a real gap of 0.194.

CHI team page →MIN team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs TBOpponentvs BUF

70.6%Win prob38.3%

0.500Equity score0.306

−6.0Spread11/11 books+3.5

47.5Game total45.0

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 2MIN @ CHI9-3 · MIN

Week 18CHI @ MINnot played yet

All-time series: 55 meetings · CHI 26 — MIN 29. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1546.5ELO rating1570.6

#9ELO rank#4

6-2Record6-1

NFC NorthDivisionNFC North

#2Division rank#1

W +17 · W +6 · W +8 · L 24 · W +11Last 5newest firstL 4 · W +6 · W +10 · W +5 · W +7

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

19.1 · #22vs QB7.8 · #1

17.8 · #3vs RB18.4 · #5

31.2 · #15vs WR25.9 · #4

12.0 · #9vs TE7.1 · #1

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.71 (2026)Sacks / game3.5 (2026)

9Pressures / game13.33

12-15Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows11-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.2% · #10Pre-snap motion41.3% · #23

14.7% · #2Play action12.5% · #8

3.6% · #22RPO3.7% · #20

4.1% · #13Screen pass4.2% · #10

4.3% · #24No huddle6.1% · #15

44.2% · #28Shotgun45.6% · #26

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.8% · #2Man coverage19.0% · #32

28.7% · #11Blitz (5+ rushers)46.2% · #1

28.7% · #23Pressure34.1% · #4

CHI scheme profile →MIN scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 8 · nflverse + highlightly

Chicago Bears

Anthony Johnson Jr.SafetyInjured Reserve
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleDoubtful
Caleb WilliamsQuarterbackQuestionable
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Colston LovelandTEFull Participation in Practice
D'Marco JacksonLBQuestionable
Grady JarrettDefensive EndDoubtful
Jack SanbornLBFull Participation in Practice
Jamree KromahDefensive EndOut
Jordan van den BergDefensive TackleOut
Kentavius StreetDefensive TackleQuestionable
Keyshaun ElliottLinebackerOut

Minnesota Vikings

Aaron JonesRBFull Participation in Practice
Adam ThielenWide ReceiverOut
Andrew Van GinkelLinebackerOut
Austin KeysLinebackerOut
Ben SimsTight EndOut
Ben YurosekTight EndOut
Brett RypienQuarterbackOut
Brian O'NeillTFull Participation in Practice
Chaz ChamblissLinebackerOut
Christian DarrisawTDid Not Participate In Practice
Corey KinerRunning BackOut
Desmond RidderQuarterbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: San Francisco 49ers Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)