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Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bears is the better survivor pick this week

Bears score 0.418 equity (60.3% win probability) against Dolphins at 0.324 — a real gap of 0.094.

CHI team page →MIA team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ CAROpponent@ LV

60.3%Win prob39.8%

0.418Equity score0.324

−3.0Spread11/11 books+3.0

47.0Game total40.5

▼ 0.011Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.002

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 14CHI @ MIAnot played yet

All-time series: 6 meetings · CHI 1 — MIA 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1510.3ELO rating1475.1

#17ELO rank#21

11-6Record7-10

NFC NorthDivisionAFC East

#1Division rank#3

L 3 · W +4 · L 3 · L 4 · W +6Last 5newest firstL 28 · W +3 · L 24 · L 13 · W +24

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.1 · #22vs QB18.2 · #23

21.7 · #16vs RB25.5 · #26

35.5 · #27vs WR29.9 · #14

13.1 · #14vs TE16.2 · #28

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.22 (2025)Sacks / game2.29 (2025)

7.94Pressures / game7.65

9-15Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows7-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.2% · #10Pre-snap motion55.9% · #1

14.7% · #2Play action12.9% · #6

3.6% · #22RPO4.4% · #16

4.1% · #13Screen pass5.2% · #4

4.3% · #24No huddle3.1% · #28

44.2% · #28Shotgun57.9% · #13

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.8% · #2Man coverage28.4% · #21

28.7% · #11Blitz (5+ rushers)33.1% · #5

28.7% · #23Pressure27.2% · #28

CHI scheme profile →MIA scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Chicago Bears

Amen OgbongbemigaLinebackerQuestionable
Austin BookerDefensive EndQuestionable
Bill MurrayGuardQuestionable
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleOut
Cairo SantosPlace KickerOut
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Chris WilliamsDefensive TackleOut
Cole KmetTight EndQuestionable
Colston LovelandTight EndQuestionable
D'Marco JacksonLinebackerOut
Darnell WrightOffensive TackleOut
Deion HankinsRunning BackInjured Reserve

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLinebackerOut
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)