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Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Bears is the better survivor pick this week

Bears score 0.492 equity (70.5% win probability) against Dolphins at 0.238 — a real gap of 0.254.

CHI team page →MIA team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs TBOpponentvs DET

70.5%Win prob26.6%

0.492Equity score0.238

−6.0Spread11/11 books+7.0

47.5Game total50.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 14CHI @ MIAnot played yet

All-time series: 6 meetings · CHI 1 — MIA 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1546.5ELO rating1442.8

#9ELO rank#27

6-2Record1-6

NFC NorthDivisionAFC East

#2Division rank#4

W +17 · W +6 · W +8 · L 24 · W +11Last 5newest firstL 5 · W +3 · L 7 · L 5 · L 14

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

19.1 · #22vs QB20.0 · #24

17.8 · #3vs RB26.5 · #25

31.2 · #15vs WR25.4 · #3

12.0 · #9vs TE19.2 · #26

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.71 (2026)Sacks / game1 (2026)

9Pressures / game6.83

12-15Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows7-13

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.2% · #10Pre-snap motion55.9% · #1

14.7% · #2Play action12.9% · #6

3.6% · #22RPO4.4% · #16

4.1% · #13Screen pass5.2% · #4

4.3% · #24No huddle3.1% · #28

44.2% · #28Shotgun57.9% · #13

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.8% · #2Man coverage28.4% · #21

28.7% · #11Blitz (5+ rushers)33.1% · #5

28.7% · #23Pressure27.2% · #28

CHI scheme profile →MIA scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 8 · nflverse + highlightly

Chicago Bears

Anthony Johnson Jr.SafetyInjured Reserve
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleDoubtful
Caleb WilliamsQuarterbackQuestionable
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Colston LovelandTEFull Participation in Practice
D'Marco JacksonLBQuestionable
Grady JarrettDefensive EndDoubtful
Jack SanbornLBFull Participation in Practice
Jamree KromahDefensive EndOut
Jordan van den BergDefensive TackleOut
Kentavius StreetDefensive TackleQuestionable
Keyshaun ElliottLinebackerOut

Miami Dolphins

A.J. GreenCornerbackOut
AJ HenningWide ReceiverQuestionable
Alec IngoldFullbackQuestionable
Alexander MattisonRunning BackInjured Reserve
Andre Carter IILinebackerOut
Ashtyn DavisSafetyOut
Austin JacksonGuardOut
Benito JonesDefensive TackleQuestionable
Caleb JohnsonLinebackerQuestionable
Cedrick Wilson Jr.Wide ReceiverOut
Chop RobinsonLBLimited Participation in Practice
Cornell ArmstrongCornerbackQuestionable

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: Kansas City Chiefs Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)