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Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Rams is the better survivor pick this week

Rams score 0.444 equity (64.2% win probability) against Bears at 0.412 — a real gap of 0.032.

CHI team page →LA team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ CAROpponentvs SF

60.7%Win prob64.2%

0.412Equity score0.444

−3.0Spread11/11 books−3.5

47.0Game total47.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▼ 0.001

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 15 meetings · CHI 7 — LA 8. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1510.3ELO rating1582.5

#17ELO rank#5

11-6Record12-5

NFC NorthDivisionNFC West

#1Division rank#3

L 3 · W +4 · L 3 · L 4 · W +6Last 5newest firstL 4 · W +3 · W +3 · W +17 · L 3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.1 · #22vs QB15.2 · #14

21.7 · #16vs RB20.6 · #12

35.5 · #27vs WR31.7 · #20

13.1 · #14vs TE13.1 · #15

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.22 (2025)Sacks / game2.6 (2025)

7.94Pressures / game11.05

9-15Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows16-14

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.2% · #10Pre-snap motion50.6% · #4

14.7% · #2Play action15.8% · #1

3.6% · #22RPO0.4% · #32

4.1% · #13Screen pass3.0% · #21

4.3% · #24No huddle6.0% · #17

44.2% · #28Shotgun34.8% · #32

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.8% · #2Man coverage27.0% · #23

28.7% · #11Blitz (5+ rushers)20.8% · #29

28.7% · #23Pressure32.1% · #9

CHI scheme profile →LA scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Chicago Bears

Amen OgbongbemigaLinebackerQuestionable
Austin BookerDefensive EndQuestionable
Bill MurrayGuardQuestionable
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleOut
Cairo SantosPlace KickerOut
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Chris WilliamsDefensive TackleOut
Cole KmetTight EndQuestionable
Colston LovelandTight EndQuestionable
D'Marco JacksonLinebackerOut
Darnell WrightOffensive TackleOut
Deion HankinsRunning BackInjured Reserve

Los Angeles Rams

Aaron DonaldDEOut
Ahkello WitherspoonCornerbackQuestionable
Alaric JacksonTFull Participation in Practice
Alex WardLong SnapperOut
Anthony TorresTight EndInjured Reserve
Beaux LimmerCenterOut
Byron YoungLBFull Participation in Practice
Colby ParkinsonTight EndOut
D.J. HumphriesOffensive TackleOut
Darious WilliamsCornerbackOut
Davante AdamsWide ReceiverQuestionable
David QuessenberryOffensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)