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Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Chargers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Chargers is the better survivor pick this week

Chargers score 0.551 equity (80.1% win probability) against Bears at 0.418 — a real gap of 0.133.

CHI team page →LAC team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ CAROpponentvs ARI

60.3%Win prob80.1%

0.418Equity score0.551

−3.0Spread11/11 books−9.5

47.0Game total47.5

▼ 0.011Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · CHI 4 — LAC 3. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1510.3ELO rating1536.9

#17ELO rank#11

11-6Record11-6

NFC NorthDivisionAFC West

#1Division rank#2

L 3 · W +4 · L 3 · L 4 · W +6Last 5newest firstL 13 · L 16 · L 4 · W +17 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.1 · #22vs QB12.6 · #2

21.7 · #16vs RB18.7 · #3

35.5 · #27vs WR27.4 · #11

13.1 · #14vs TE10.5 · #4

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.22 (2025)Sacks / game2.78 (2025)

7.94Pressures / game8

9-15Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows15-16

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.2% · #10Pre-snap motion42.2% · #19

14.7% · #2Play action11.5% · #14

3.6% · #22RPO2.0% · #27

4.1% · #13Screen pass2.8% · #25

4.3% · #24No huddle3.9% · #25

44.2% · #28Shotgun59.0% · #10

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.8% · #2Man coverage23.6% · #27

28.7% · #11Blitz (5+ rushers)22.1% · #27

28.7% · #23Pressure31.3% · #12

CHI scheme profile →LAC scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Chicago Bears

Amen OgbongbemigaLinebackerQuestionable
Austin BookerDefensive EndQuestionable
Bill MurrayGuardQuestionable
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleOut
Cairo SantosPlace KickerOut
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Chris WilliamsDefensive TackleOut
Cole KmetTight EndQuestionable
Colston LovelandTight EndQuestionable
D'Marco JacksonLinebackerOut
Darnell WrightOffensive TackleOut
Deion HankinsRunning BackInjured Reserve

Los Angeles Chargers

Benjamin St-JusteCornerbackOut
Bobby HartOffensive TackleOut
Bradley BozemanCenterOut
Brenen ThompsonWRLimited Participation in Practice
Bud DupreeLinebackerQuestionable
Cam HartCornerbackOut
Da'Shawn HandDefensive TackleQuestionable
Deane LeonardCBDid Not Participate In Practice
Del'Shawn PhillipsLinebackerOut
Dez FitzpatrickWide ReceiverInjured Reserve
Donte JacksonCornerbackQuestionable
Elijah MoldenCornerbackOut

Relevant to this matchup

2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(mentions Chargers)