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Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 1 verdict

Bears is the better survivor pick this week

Bears score 0.418 equity (60.3% win probability) against Texans at 0.361 — a real gap of 0.058.

CHI team page →HOU team page →

This week

2026 week 1 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

@ CAROpponentvs BUF

60.3%Win prob47.2%

0.418Equity score0.361

−3.0Spread11/11 books+1.5

47.0Game total45.0

▼ 0.011Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot▲ 0.008

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

These two teams are not scheduled to meet this season.

All-time series: 7 meetings · CHI 2 — HOU 5. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2025 · week 1

1510.3ELO rating1573.1

#17ELO rank#6

11-6Record12-5

NFC NorthDivisionAFC South

#1Division rank#2

L 3 · W +4 · L 3 · L 4 · W +6Last 5newest firstL 12 · W +24 · W +8 · W +4 · W +2

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2025 through week 18 · lower rank = tougher

18.1 · #22vs QB12.8 · #3

21.7 · #16vs RB20.1 · #11

35.5 · #27vs WR25.9 · #3

13.1 · #14vs TE12.3 · #11

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.22 (2025)Sacks / game2.95 (2025)

7.94Pressures / game8.42

9-15Primetime record2021–2025 standalone windows10-10

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.2% · #10Pre-snap motion44.7% · #14

14.7% · #2Play action11.2% · #16

3.6% · #22RPO1.3% · #29

4.1% · #13Screen pass2.2% · #31

4.3% · #24No huddle3.6% · #27

44.2% · #28Shotgun51.0% · #23

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.8% · #2Man coverage31.5% · #16

28.7% · #11Blitz (5+ rushers)22.9% · #23

28.7% · #23Pressure30.7% · #15

CHI scheme profile →HOU scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 1 · nflverse + highlightly

Chicago Bears

Amen OgbongbemigaLinebackerQuestionable
Austin BookerDefensive EndQuestionable
Bill MurrayGuardQuestionable
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleOut
Cairo SantosPlace KickerOut
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Chris WilliamsDefensive TackleOut
Cole KmetTight EndQuestionable
Colston LovelandTight EndQuestionable
D'Marco JacksonLinebackerOut
Darnell WrightOffensive TackleOut
Deion HankinsRunning BackInjured Reserve

Houston Texans

Aireontae ErseryOffensive TackleOut
Alijah HuzzieCornerbackOut
Ameer SpeedCornerbackOut
Azeez Al-ShaairLinebackerOut
Blake FisherOffensive TackleQuestionable
Braxton BerriosWide ReceiverOut
Brevin JordanTight EndInjured Reserve
British BrooksRunning BackOut
C.J. Gardner-JohnsonSafetyQuestionable
C.J. StroudQuarterbackOut
Cade StoverTight EndQuestionable
Cam RobinsonOffensive TackleOut

Relevant to this matchup

The Case for Home Underdogs in Survivor Pools(a home underdog is on the board)
2026 Week 1 Path Survival Alert: Detroit Lions Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 1 path survival)
2026 Week 1 Scarcity Divergence: Tennessee Titans Ranks Higher on Season Path Than on This Week's Odds(week 1 scarcity divergence)
2026 Week 1 Survivor Picks: Los Angeles Chargers Lead the Board(week 1 weekly picks)