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Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

Real survivor-pool comparison built on the same validated tables the team pages use — de-vigged market win probability and equity, spreads and totals, ELO ranks, defense vs position, charted scheme tendencies, recent form and current injuries. Green marks the better league rank.

Week 9 verdict

Bears is the better survivor pick this week

Bears score 0.500 equity (70.6% win probability) against Packers at 0.295 — a real gap of 0.204.

CHI team page →GB team page →

This week

2026 week 9 · de-vigged consensus from live_game_lines + equity_scores

vs TBOpponent@ NE

70.6%Win prob39.0%

0.500Equity score0.295

−6.0Spread11/11 books+3.0

47.5Game total45.5

= 0.000Equity trendsince previous stored snapshot= 0.000

Season series

2026 scheduled meetings

Week 5CHI @ GB7-31 · GB

Week 16GB @ CHInot played yet

All-time series: 57 meetings · CHI 16 — GB 41. See the full head-to-head history →

Power rating & record

elo through 2026 · week 9

1546.5ELO rating1531.1

#9ELO rank#13

6-2Record5-3

NFC NorthDivisionNFC North

#2Division rank#4

W +17 · W +6 · W +8 · L 24 · W +11Last 5newest firstW +8 · L 3 · W +10 · W +24 · W +3

Defense vs position

ppr allowed per game · 2026 through week 8 · lower rank = tougher

19.1 · #22vs QB12.6 · #5

17.8 · #3vs RB25.5 · #23

31.2 · #15vs WR35.0 · #22

12.0 · #9vs TE9.0 · #2

Pass rush & primetime — descriptive only

tested and published as flat: neither predicts survivor outcomes beyond the market

2.71 (2026)Sacks / game2.75 (2026)

9Pressures / game9.38

12-15Primetime record2021–2026 standalone windows19-16-1

Both of these are context, not edge. Our own tests found DL strength (finding #10) and primetime risk (finding #11) statistically flat once the market price is accounted for.

Scheme tendencies — offense

ftn charting · 2025 season · rank 1 = highest rate

47.2% · #10Pre-snap motion44.1% · #15

14.7% · #2Play action11.7% · #12

3.6% · #22RPO7.9% · #4

4.1% · #13Screen pass3.3% · #18

4.3% · #24No huddle7.2% · #14

44.2% · #28Shotgun52.2% · #21

Scheme tendencies — defense

nflverse participation · 2025 season

43.8% · #2Man coverage21.2% · #31

28.7% · #11Blitz (5+ rushers)21.9% · #28

28.7% · #23Pressure30.7% · #16

CHI scheme profile →GB scheme profile →

Injury report

2026 week 8 · nflverse + highlightly

Chicago Bears

Anthony Johnson Jr.SafetyInjured Reserve
Braxton JonesOffensive TackleDoubtful
Caleb WilliamsQuarterbackQuestionable
Case KeenumQuarterbackOut
Colston LovelandTEFull Participation in Practice
D'Marco JacksonLBQuestionable
Grady JarrettDefensive EndDoubtful
Jack SanbornLBFull Participation in Practice
Jamree KromahDefensive EndOut
Jordan van den BergDefensive TackleOut
Kentavius StreetDefensive TackleQuestionable
Keyshaun ElliottLinebackerOut

Green Bay Packers

Aaron BanksGLimited Participation in Practice
Chris BrooksRBLimited Participation in Practice
Christian WatsonWRLimited Participation in Practice
Devonte WyattDefensive TackleQuestionable
Javon HargraveDefensive TackleQuestionable
Jayden ReedWide ReceiverOut
Josh WhyleTEDid Not Participate In Practice
Keisean NixonCBLimited Participation in Practice
Matthew GoldenWide ReceiverQuestionable
Micah ParsonsLBLimited Participation in Practice
Sean RhyanCDid Not Participate In Practice
Travis GloverGDid Not Participate In Practice

Relevant to this matchup

Why Divisional Games Are Riskier Than They Look(same division)
2026 Week 9 Path Survival Alert: Jacksonville Jaguars Drifts Up in the Simulations(week 9 path survival)
2026 Week 9 Weather Watch: Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks Tops the Forecast(week 9 weather watch)
2026 Week 9 Survivor Picks: San Francisco 49ers Lead the Board(week 9 weekly picks)